[情報] Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 39

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Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Latest data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a few hours ago
indicate that Irma's intensity continues to fluctuate, and the
winds are estimated at 135 kt. The last minimum central pressure
was 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane will check Irma soon.

數小時前來自颶風獵人最新的資料顯示Irma強度持續變動中,風力估計有135節
最新中心最小氣壓有925mb. 另外一架偵察機很快會確認

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.

環境對Irma有助於維持第四級狀態, 唯一無法預測的是接下來四十八小時
眼牆置換循環導致的強度變化. 颶風環流與古巴的交互作用將可能不造成
對強度更多的變化. 總而言之, 本中心預報把Irma以四級颶風帶入靠近佛州南部.
登陸後陸地的影響與風切增強應該逐漸減弱強度

Satellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has
slowed down and is now moving toward the west or 280 degrees at
about 10 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the
next 12 hours to 24 hours, and this track will bring the core of
Irma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma
should reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin
to move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida
peninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and
that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact
track of the center. This afternoon's NHC forecast was again
adjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF
model and both the HFIP corrected consensus and the FSU
Superensemble. In fact, these 3 aids continued to be tightly packed.

衛星影像與古巴雷達定位指示Irma速動放慢,並現在10節280度朝西行進.
在接下來十二到二十四小時颶風應該維持此路徑, 並且此路徑將Irma核心帶入
接近古巴北海岸. 過了此時間後, Irma應該接近副熱帶高壓脊西南緣,
並開始朝西北與北北西前往佛州半島.
此轉向的精確時刻依舊不確定, 這就是為何本中心強調任何人不該注重確實的路徑中心.
此本中心午後預報依據ECMWF模式的趨勢,以及HFIP校正集成和FSU超系集此兩者一起,
再次稍微向西改動.  事實上, 此三模式持續緊密集合著.


KEY MESSAGES:


1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

Irma將持續對部分巴哈馬群島與古巴北海岸帶來致命強風, 風暴潮, 與災害性降雨等

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center.

預料Irma以極度危險的主要颶風登陸佛州,
無論確實中心位於路徑何處將對全州產生致命強風

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant
storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has
increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is
possible in this area.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and
property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from
local officials.

接下來三十六小時在佛州南端與佛州礁島群會有致命風暴潮產生溢淹的危險,
此地區的風暴潮預警生效中. 在佛州西南海岸出現風暴潮淹水的威脅顯著增加,
在此區域有可能出現8到12呎的溢淹高度. 這是危及生命的情況.
助於此地區的任何人應該採取所有手段保護生命與財產以免受洪水
並遵照地方政府的疏散指示

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida
peninsula through Tuesday night.  The highest amounts are expected
over the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys.  Irma
will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South
Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding.  All areas
seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding
and flash flooding.

Irma預料在產生強降雨以及內陸淹水.
到週二晚間佛州礁島群與大部分佛州預期出現總降雨累積8到15吋, 加上20吋局部
雨量. 最高降雨量預料出現於佛州半島東部與上礁島群.
Irma將有可能會在下周初在大部分的喬治亞州,卡羅萊納州南部與北卡羅萊納州西部
產生局部大雨, 包括部分更容易淹水的山區.
會因Irma出現大雨的地區將會有淹水與暴洪的風險

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※ 編輯: ALPHONSE2501 (47.145.125.37), 09/09/2017 07:25:17
推 jelly777    : 推
推 ben108472   : 應該確定要登古巴了
推 killseven   : 古巴請保重  這隻破壞力應該不小
推 aegis43210  : 登古巴就重回巔峰無望
推 aegis43210  : 希望不要登陸古巴，想看二次巔峰
推 aegis43210  : 雙貓五的成就沒意外要達成了
推 fajita      : IRMA重返農藥了，貓五again
→ k26975582   : Hurricane Irma strengthens back to a category 5