[討論] 26W形成

[usaul56 (凱哥)]

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LIMITED AREA OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181341Z
89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH EVIDENCE OF FORMATIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI AGENCY
POSITION FIXES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH AND AREA OF WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TD 26W HAS A WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W.
   B. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 12, TRANSIT ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, AND TRACK OUT INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY
DUE TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION,
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE SYSTEM
TRACKING OVER LAND. AROUND TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
EASTERN PHILIPPINES, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TYPHOON 25W
(LAN), EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY TY 25W BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//


https://imgur.com/a/qAwwc


看來JTWC認為26W是有可能被LAN給吃掉的

但兩者目前距離還是有點遠

是否會順利吃掉還有待觀察

https://imgur.com/a/wCOPc

https://imgur.com/a/1P8Cm

渦度還蠻強的，顯示系統已經有一定的強度

但環境垂直風切稍強

未來增強可能要等到進入太平洋海域
(前提是不被LAN吃掉)


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推 truffaut    : 這走勢好少見 南海往東穿越菲國 就像是從臺灣海峽往
→ truffaut    : 東穿越中央山脈往太平洋一樣的意思
推 tnit        : 會不會如果蘭恩走快一些，這顆反而被導引到台灣近海
→ tnit        : ？
推 luckymore   : 秋颱變數果然多 東西兩側都發展起來狀況會變很複雜
推 ben108472   : 當系集統一後，變數就少多了
→ snocia      : 現在的蘭恩吃下去八成消化不良，全部一起G_G
推 ImMACACO    : CWB 的天氣圖還是 L  是看準會被吃嗎
推 Popaieric   : 感覺吃不下去XD
推 ben108472   : 吃不下去也會被分屍XD
推 wl3532      : fw....
→ HellFly     : 北上後在日本怎麼轉向的變數很多
推 ben108472   : 那就是日本的事囉XD