[情報] 90W TCFA

[usaul56 (凱哥)]

HE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.6N
132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 435
NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE SOUTHERN ARC OF
THE
SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL FLARING CONVECTION FORMING TO THE
NORTHEAST.
A 280546Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE SAME BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION
AND THE IMPROVED SYMMETRY IN THE LLCC. VWS REMAINS LOW
(10-15 KNOTS)
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN WARM (28-29C) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W
WILL REACH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARDS
OKINAWA,
WITH SOME VARIATION IN TIMING. NAVGEM, GFS, AND UKMET ALL
SHOW 90W
BECOMING A TD WITHIN 24HRS, WITH THE ECMWF AND JGSM
FOLLOWING
SHORTLY AFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.



https://imgur.com/a/2D6WQAS


原本各模式都不看好會發展的系統

現在看來有機會在接近那霸的時候增強為輕度颱風

也將是今年第一個可能侵襲韓國的熱帶系統

臺灣受他引進的西南風影響

未來一個禮拜就不會那麼熱了，還會下一點午後雷雨


--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 218.211.33.221
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1530177310.A.DBA.html
※ 編輯: usaul56 (218.211.33.221), 06/28/2018 17:18:26
推 aegis43210  : 轉成暖心的速度超快
推 WuCH1022    : 老問題  低層中心還在跟南邊深對流競爭
推 youngscott  : 會靠近臺灣嗎 感覺有分歧?
目前看來不會，頂多外圍環流影響
※ 編輯: usaul56 (218.211.33.221), 06/28/2018 17:57:19
推 ben108472   : 看數值分歧不大了，都是北上
推 dunking     : 北上時的西南風看起來增強有限 台灣這邊不見得有西
推 doledo01    : 靠近一點有機會下雨 離太遠下沈溫度又飆高
推 dunking     : 南氣流
推 killseven   : 吃下沉應該比較有機會  今天就有點吃到了
推 saimeitetsu : 吃下沉+1
推 aegis43210  : WRF06Z，預測路徑離那霸更近了，去琉球群島的板友請
→ aegis43210  : 多注意天氣資訊
推 aegis43210  : 看起來是沒有昇格為TY的機會
推 imrbo       : 明後天吃下沉機率超高 超熱
推 killseven   : 90W晚上爆對流...xd  感覺越來越有機會升格了
推 aegis43210  : 老J升格為09W，小J發佈GW
推 killseven   : 巴比倫要出現了  讚讚ˋ
推 aegis43210  : 渦度轉紅，前身是冷心低壓，有中心垂直風切較弱的優
→ aegis43210  : 勢，可惜91w比較值得期待
推 taristocrat : https://imgur.com/a/5983V8b 明天應該就升格了
推 cakeGJ      : 感覺這種距離應該是吃下沉
→ fajita      : 小J剛升了,預測是韓國貨