作者YuGar (深奧幽玄)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 90W TCFA <熱帶氣旋警報>
時間Mon Jul 30 15:28:39 2018
JTWC 90W TCFA
http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9018.gif
▲ 遠洋貨，昨天(29/2100Z)是朝東北東方向前進。
原文如下：[
http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9018web.txt ]
==============================================================================
WTPN21 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.2N 152.9E TO 32.9N 153.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
291900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N
153.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.5N
148.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS THERE IS WEAK CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM'S INITIAL
POSITION DUE TO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC AND LACK OF VISIBLE IMAGERY. A
281741Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
DEPICTING THE WEAK CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE AND A DISORGANIZED
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ALL DISPLAY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING. NAVGEM AND GFS ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JGSM, ECMWF, AND
UKMET SHOWING DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302100Z.//
NNNN
==============================================================================
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推 killseven : 無感的東西+.+ 07/30 15:39
推 huangjyuan : 只希望今年風季別跟去年一樣就好…… 07/30 15:57
→ YuGar : 才七月底，颱風季才剛剛要滿一個月好唄。 07/30 16:02
推 HellFly : 去年尼莎海棠後也是期待8、9月 然後就跨年了 07/30 16:07
推 huangjyuan : 4F 一樣的想法XDD 07/30 16:13
→ huangjyuan : 期間還一個騙感情的 07/30 16:13
推 killseven : 再觀察吧 目前路線今年似乎比較偏東偏北 07/30 16:19
→ killseven : 跟去年颱風偏西偏南走倒是有點差異 07/30 16:19
→ killseven : 不過今年最強颱風已經打敗去年了 贊 07/30 16:20
→ killseven : 後續颱風可以在觀察看看 07/30 16:20
推 aegis43210 : 今年已經很滿意，之後等九月上旬的MJO 07/30 16:23
推 killseven : 然後連著三年都有一隻 路徑奇特的颱風 路徑迷的 07/30 16:25
→ killseven : 福利 ！！ 讚啦 07/30 16:25
→ aegis43210 : 路徑上不會有什麼變動 07/30 16:42
推 luckymore : 不要再出現幽靈颱，我都還能忍受XDD 07/30 16:44
→ EspressoMaps: 什麼是幽靈颱？ 07/30 17:11
推 shadow53250 : 是在說谷超嗎XD 07/30 17:49
推 acidrain : 沒有海燕莫蘭蒂這種頂級強颱 都無法滿足我 07/30 19:33
推 killseven : 去年的幽靈颱就是谷超沒錯 然後唬爛颱是泰利... 07/30 19:48
推 hirosimamika: 老爺爺颱是諾盧 07/30 21:13
推 killseven : 今年的雲雀也是老字輩的 目前已是老雀了 07/30 21:13
→ killseven : 25號生成應該有機會活到5/3號 07/30 21:15
→ killseven : 8/3 07/30 21:15
→ killseven : 應該算中年 還不到老...xd 07/30 21:16
推 nicesky115 : 16W 07/30 21:19
推 jasonccr : 廢物泰利 森氣氣 07/30 22:55
推 miserlylier : 雲雀今天有點慘 會不會除名 07/31 00:59
→ miserlylier : 更正 今年 07/31 00:59
推 truffaut : 7/25~8/3 大概10天 算壯年雲雀 07/31 01:05
→ hijacker : 雲雀趕快死一死吧 搞的台灣熱死了 07/31 01:11
→ widec : 雲雀趕快死一死+1 07/31 09:38
→ jasonccr : 雲雀快死吧 垃圾東西 07/31 10:16
→ jasonccr : 討厭熱天ZZZ 07/31 10:16
推 aegis43210 : J板也來XD，不過下沉至少有風，副高來是完全沒風的 07/31 10:19
→ Rocobiceps : 副高來也有風阿,太平洋高壓之偏東風XD 07/31 10:46
推 cjfnued : 想問一下 雲雀如果是依照以前颱風命名方式 會叫做 07/31 11:04
推 nicesky115 : 雲雀前世是蘇納姆 07/31 11:21
推 crimsonnight: 鳥名颱風都很可怕 07/31 12:52
→ hinajian : 鳥颱（褒義） 07/31 13:11
推 a27281591 : 颱風姓名學 07/31 13:32
推 truffaut : 那莫拉克後代叫什麼 07/31 13:40
推 killseven : 莫拉克更換的是 閃電吧 07/31 13:49
