[情報] 91W TCFA

作者destiny583 (.)

看板TY_Research

標題[情報] 91W TCFA

時間Fri Aug 17 15:29:50 2018

https://i.imgur.com/xx9oaw4.jpg

JTWC警報圖 https://imgur.com/a/34Pk509 機構路徑 WTPN21 PGTW 170530 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHE R SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7N 158.9E TO 14.7N 152.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HO URS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WAR NINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METS AT IMAGERY AT 170500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6 N 158.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 162.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 158.3E, APPROXIMATELY 795NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIM ATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INT O AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 170240Z GMI 36GHZ IMAGE SHOW S FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE E ASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 29C. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTA INED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFI CANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 180530Z. // NNNN ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- JTWC 23W首報 WTPN31 PGTW 172100 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170521ZAUG2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 155.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 155.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.8N 154.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.7N 152.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.8N 151.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.0N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 20.1N 145.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.2N 141.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 27.0N 137.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 155.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM NORTH OF OROLUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTIO33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 170530). 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED REFERENCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// NNNN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 120.114.240.1 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1534490992.A.E1A.html

推 dunking : 大物終於要來了~~ 08/17 15:34

推 dunking : 北方開始有冷空氣活動了幸運一點等這隻西馬隆北上 08/17 16:10

→ dunking : 可能有機會吃到一咪咪不太涼的冷空氣... 08/17 16:10

推 aegis43210 : 模式呈現同分異構物狀態QQ 08/17 16:18

推 aegis43210 : UKMO看好強度，GFS和ECMWF不看好 08/17 16:22

推 Y1309 : 21W深入內陸環流還能維持這麼好0.0 08/17 16:41

推 spider605228: 這隻預計跟著蘇力的屁股北上不過蘇力把暖海水消耗掉 08/17 16:53

→ spider605228: ，未來91w強度發展感覺比較有限。 08/17 16:53

→ aegis43210 : 八月的SST很快就恢復了，高空環境還是比較重要 08/17 16:59

推 aegis43210 : https://imgur.com/mjAMfe4.jpg 08/17 17:15

→ aegis43210 : 實際上GFS是給115KTS的強度 08/17 17:15

推 starwish07 : 涼冷空氣會被蘇力颱風捲進去不會來台灣要入秋沒 08/17 17:32

→ starwish07 : 那麼快 08/17 17:32

※ 編輯: destiny583 (220.142.81.149), 08/17/2018 18:33:10

推 amou1030 : 所以又是上海貨或者日本貨?今年太平洋高壓這麼沒路 08/17 21:11

→ amou1030 : 用? 08/17 21:11

推 amou1030 : 今年颱風多到很誇張吶 08/17 21:13

→ dunking : 話不要說太早，搞不好就像去年一樣，九月西伸賴著 08/17 21:20

→ dunking : 不走 08/17 21:21

推 Eeli2008 : 台灣東邊那陀是怎麼回事...雖然其實強對流在海上 08/17 22:05

推 aegis43210 : https://imgur.com/oIbqkqu.jpg 08/17 22:40

→ aegis43210 : 蘇力已經沒什麼變化了，來觀察已TCFA的準西馬隆 08/17 22:41

推 killseven : 2001西馬隆是侵台颱風 2006西馬隆更是個猛颱風 08/17 22:51

→ killseven : 這次的西馬隆呢?? 拭目以待 08/17 22:51

推 aegis43210 : 台灣東邊那陀，GFS06Z有反應，但星期日就消失了 08/17 22:53

→ aegis43210 : 南海有擾動發展的機會，看起來是往廣東移動 08/17 22:54

推 killseven : 其實蠻意外2006的西馬隆沒被除名的記得菲蠻慘的 08/17 23:00

→ killseven : 那時候菲律賓一直被颱風連擊的 08/17 23:01

→ killseven : 而且五隻強度都不算弱 08/17 23:01

推 aegis43210 : 菲律賓人比較樂天知命？但風暴潮不會想到西馬隆 08/17 23:09

推 killseven : 應該是登陸的地點吧象神跟榴槤災情就嚴重很多 08/17 23:13

→ killseven : 也是五隻被除名的名子另外三個就沒被除名了 08/17 23:14

→ killseven : 尤其流連在菲律賓死亡失蹤也上千人...xd 08/17 23:14

→ aegis43210 : 那死傷真的會以為是發生海嘯了… 08/17 23:21

→ aegis43210 : 蘇力直接把雲捲風眼填掉了，可能要重新開眼 08/17 23:22

推 jeffh : 這隻西馬隆值得觀察,也正逢副高西伸的時間 08/17 23:35

推 yukosakura : 西馬隆的路徑大概要等什麼時候才會明朗? 08/17 23:47

推 aegis43210 : 保守預估的話，8/21左右吧 08/17 23:58

推 dunking : 西伸快一點台灣就有機會中獎 08/18 00:05

推 DoraBoy : 蘇力越過140E了 08/18 00:07

推 aegis43210 : 昇格為23W 08/18 03:06

推 aegis43210 : UKMO認為西馬隆也去九州，九州二連擊 08/18 03:37

→ Rocobiceps : 某樓,太平洋高壓今年可是早早就北抬上去了~並在之後 08/18 08:04

→ Rocobiceps : 的盛夏接連讓日韓吃到瘋狂熱浪!這樣的副高,猛得很, 08/18 08:08

→ Rocobiceps : 哪裡沒路用了XD 喔對了,華北一帶今夏的熱浪也頗誇張 08/18 08:10

※ 編輯: destiny583 (36.237.20.238), 08/18/2018 08:45:27

推 HellFly : 就猛七月中上下旬就頹了並且頹到現在了 08/18 12:31

→ HellFly : 高壓有週期性增強減弱不可能一直強一直弱 08/18 12:32

推 aegis43210 : https://imgur.com/OCX9yGy.jpg TWRF18Z 08/18 12:56

→ aegis43210 : 整體路徑西修，走向黃海後可能轉向侵襲北韓 08/18 12:57

→ aegis43210 : 8/22~24，全台有豪大雨發生的機會 08/18 12:58

→ logdog : 那是因為婦高的勢力範圍不再亞熱帶的緣故吧怎可說弱 08/18 16:36