作者destiny583 (.)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 94W TCFA（升格25W）
時間Mon Aug 27 10:11:16 2018
TCFA TEXT
WTPN21 PGTW 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 160.3E TO 17.4N 155.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
270130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
12.4N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY
885 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
262335Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. A 262235Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES
AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KTS AROUND THE LLCC.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280200Z.//
NNNN
==============================================================================
TC WARNING TEXT 01
GRAPHIC:
https://imgur.com/a/4PfVL4Y
WTPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZAUG2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR
13.4N 159.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS -
320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
025 KT, GUSTS
035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 159.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z ---
15.1N 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
035 KT, GUSTS
045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT:
315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z ---
16.5N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
045 KT, GUSTS
055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT:
300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z ---
17.4N 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
060 KT, GUSTS
075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT:
290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z ---
18.0N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
075 KT, GUSTS
090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z ---
18.7N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
095 KT, GUSTS
115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT:
285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z ---
19.7N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
105 KT, GUSTS
130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT:
290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z ---
21.2N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
105 KT, GUSTS
130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 158.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND
280900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 270200).//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 134N1590E 25
NNNN
==============================================================================
TC WARNING TEXT 02
WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR
14.1N 158.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS -
330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
030 KT, GUSTS
040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 158.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z ---
15.6N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
040 KT, GUSTS
050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT:
305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z ---
16.8N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
055 KT, GUSTS
070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT:
295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z ---
17.5N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
070 KT, GUSTS
085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT:
285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z ---
18.0N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
085 KT, GUSTS
105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT:
280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z ---
18.7N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
100 KT, GUSTS
125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT:
285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z ---
19.9N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
110 KT, GUSTS
135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT:
295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z ---
21.6N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
110 KT, GUSTS
135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 158.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
NNNN
==============================================================================
TC WARNING TEXT 03
WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR
14.7N 158.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS -
320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
030 KT, GUSTS
040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 158.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z ---
16.1N 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
040 KT, GUSTS
050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT:
300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.0N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.6N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.0N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.8N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.3N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.3N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 157.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 617 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
NNNN
--
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推 killseven : 真"燕子"要誕生了嗎 (還是比較喜歡奇比的念法) 08/27 10:12
推 birdlover : 這隻有機會靠近嗎～ 08/27 10:40
→ e20288 : 看高壓吧，往日本的機率會比較大一些 08/27 10:47
→ killseven : 距離太遠了 西移過程可能高壓一弱就北上了... 08/27 10:49
→ dunking : 9月之後副高強度難掌握 無論西修或北轉都還會變的 08/27 11:08
推 WuCH1022 : 勿忘杜鵑 08/27 11:13
推 dunking : 杜鵑是當時一路西修過來的嗎? 08/27 11:13
推 killseven : 杜鵑剛形成的地點沒那麼遠洋... 08/27 11:15
→ killseven : 兩個距離差蠻遠的....xd 08/27 11:15
推 WuCH1022 : 第一天轉東北 第二天日本 第三天台灣 08/27 11:16
推 killseven : 杜鵑一開始預測應該是散花的情況 08/27 11:17
→ killseven : 不是全部轉東北 08/27 11:18
→ wentasu : 可以再去上海玩喔！ 08/27 11:18
推 e20288 : 這隻也還沒形成啊，形成可能已經西移很多了 08/27 11:19
→ killseven : 這隻我是覺得不用抱太大的期望 九月高壓... 08/27 11:22
→ killseven : 倒是可以期待一下強度就是了 08/27 11:22
推 HellFly : 今年高壓… 往日本的機率大很多 08/27 11:27
推 vaughn : 其實高壓在回到日本南方的路上了 08/27 12:19
推 dunking : 經歷兩年很熱的前秋，副高在9月甚至10月的強度真的 08/27 12:22
→ dunking : 很捉摸不定 08/27 12:22
→ dunking : EC這幾報都有北方西風槽線擊退副高的劇本，但槽線 08/27 12:24
→ dunking : 還是有龜縮的可能啊... 08/27 12:24
推 vaughn : 今年從梅雨一直到夏天，跟前二年差異很大 08/27 12:37
→ vaughn : 所以初秋應該也不會像前二年才對 08/27 12:37
推 kbty245 : EC對這次西風槽的強度還沒掌握好，上一報弱這一報強 08/27 12:55
→ kbty245 : 94W也蠻可惜，剛好碰到新一輪的西風活動，如果早個 08/27 12:57
→ kbty245 : 兩三天生成或生近一點應該就有機會直撲 08/27 12:57
→ dunking : 可能要麻煩樓上的留言稍微留意一些 現在這時間點見 08/27 13:05
→ dunking : 縫插針的不少...以這樣的狀況颱風不來也好 而且北轉 08/27 13:07
→ dunking : 碰上槽前輻散 強度大概會不差... 08/27 13:09
推 killseven : 其實不來也好 曾文也算補得差不多了 08/27 13:10
推 WuCH1022 : 先把年度風王搶回來 08/27 13:10
推 e20288 : 來不來還不知道呢 08/27 13:10
→ dunking : 前天豪雨的水還沒完全入庫曾文 這幾天還有西南氣流 08/27 13:12
→ dunking : 雨水進帳... 08/27 13:12
推 brabra : 期待cat 4然後幫北部補水就好 08/27 13:18
推 killseven : 這波西南氣流位置似乎偏南 然後也還沒進入山區 08/27 13:18
→ killseven : 感覺強降雨都還在海上 08/27 13:18
推 vaughn : 副高西伸的速度比預期快，西南氣流影響比預期小 08/27 13:22
→ dunking : 130~150E 20N以北的地雷區要快快修補啊QQ 08/27 13:22
推 HellFly : 中太平洋聖嬰發展 那塊不好補 08/27 13:53
推 mecca : 完全滯留不動QQ 08/27 14:44
推 HellFly : 升格25W 08/27 15:37
推 dunking : EC這一報西修北轉，北方槽線調弱 08/27 16:01
→ e20288 : GFS還是堅持槽線會早早勾走，不把高壓放在眼裡 08/27 16:29
→ e20288 : 連JTWC都不理GFS... 08/27 17:03
推 ZXC47174 : 副高沒穩定待在那區一陣子應該是很難補好那塊地雷區 08/27 17:21
推 dunking : EC目前修正的登陸點範圍在九州和關西之間 08/27 17:23
→ dunking : 初報老J給了Cat.3 雖然有槽前輻散幫忙 但對流輻合 08/27 17:25
→ dunking : 行經地雷區可能烙賽... 08/27 17:25
推 HellFly : 一直拉 沒進食是會虛脫的 08/27 17:33
推 aegis43210 : 還是有可能去上海 08/27 18:33
推 kbty245 : GFS遇到槽線都會發瘋，正常 08/27 18:38
推 michelin4x4 : 本來都是在菲律賓爆對流的 現在竟然北抬到中南部 08/27 19:09
→ michelin4x4 : 下面那一坨好可怕的感覺 QQ 08/27 19:10
推 rulDD : 東部外海上那片好猛的感覺 08/27 21:27
推 earthuncuttv: 東邊那團進來會很爽 08/27 21:56
→ hinajian : 上海組湊一桌打麻將（？） 08/27 22:00
→ YuGar : 今年上海是要創下超難破的記錄的樣子 08/27 22:12
推 wj12240522 : 這個時間點講可惜真的不妥 08/28 01:34
推 aegis43210 : 因為西太沒有飛機穿心實測了... 08/28 01:43
推 aegis43210 : 燕子北上後，關島附近還會再發展出熱帶擾動 08/28 03:56
→ aegis43210 : 沒有空窗期的日子真棒 08/28 03:56
→ e20288 : EC預測高壓走強，路徑西修到九州沖繩間通過 08/28 07:19
※ 編輯: destiny583 (220.142.90.144), 08/28/2018 09:02:50
