[情報] 96W TCFA

[dunking (冷鋒過境)]

跨年全台水氣供應商來囉~

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9618web.txt

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9618.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TR
OPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CY
CLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9N 137.6E TO 10.0N
132.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMA
TED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
 CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 136.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEA
R 7.1N 137.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF PAL
AU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 240807Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE BOTH SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL C
IRCULATION (LLC) SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST. 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
 FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT
S) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GL
OBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE
 TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CON
VECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIF
ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE R
EISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 250900Z.// NNNN

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 223.139.162.240
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1545648348.A.ECF.html
※ 編輯: dunking (223.139.162.240), 12/24/2018 19:02:52
※ 編輯: dunking (223.139.162.240), 12/24/2018 19:03:58
→ dunking     : 不曉得是否有機會在年底生出帕布，力拼產量30個!
推 WuCH1022    : CIMSS 850百帕渦度分析已紅裡透白 就等風切下降
→ WuCH1022    : 深對流可以覆蓋中心
推 ben108472   : 看了一下，中心還蠻多個的XD
推 WuCH1022    : 已升34W
推 WuCH1022    : 用真彩仔細看 主中心目前是外露在最大對流南方
推 taristocrat : https://i.imgur.com/OmTHtHB.jpg
→ taristocrat : https://i.imgur.com/niX0wHy.jpg
→ dunking     : 北側風場很大，28~29號預計冷颼颼的北風吹很大
推 Bustycat    : JMA到聖誕節06Z才升熱低
推 taristocrat : https://imgur.com/a/5FEMVCE T.D.中心氣壓1000
推 WuCH1022    : 小J GW
推 taristocrat : https://imgur.com/a/HC7B9d8
推 wl3532      : 上次30颱好像很久了
推 wl3532      : 結果也沒多久 XD 2013年就31個了
推 singlesingle: 可是有一些是爛竽充數的鳥颱XD
推 Bustycat    : JMA放棄GW
推 truffaut    : 掛掉了 變低壓
→ truffaut    : https://imgur.com/a/mQr9cvt