作者destiny583 (.)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 97W TCFA
時間Mon Dec 31 09:34:00 2018
https://i.imgur.com/w2m5qhR.png
WTPQ20 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 07.8N 112.4E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 07.6N 110.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
https://i.imgur.com/mS6tyw7.jpg
WTPN21 PGTW 302030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 115.5E TO 7.3N 107.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGE
RY AT 301900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
8.4N 114.9E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N
113.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 114.9E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH OF BRUNEI.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301417Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 301310Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED SHAPE
OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWS PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND
20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY BUT NOT YET WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TRACKING WEST AFTER A
SHORT PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AND WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT PASSES
SOUTH OF VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIA
L FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOUR
S IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
312030Z.//
NNNN
模式似乎還蠻看好97W成為2019的第一個颱風
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推 Eeli2008 : 是不是直接接收96W的殘餘了？ 12/31 10:10
→ destiny583 : 看起來有接收一部份 12/31 10:21
推 WuCH1022 : CIMSS風切顯示該區域風切有下降 反倒讓原95W的97W 12/31 13:15
→ WuCH1022 : 佔到便宜有望升格 12/31 13:15
推 ilutc : 小J GW 12/31 15:49
推 wl3532 : 有機會挑戰愛麗絲的元旦颱紀錄嗎 12/31 16:48
→ wl3532 : 197901 Alice 在元旦8點升格 12/31 16:48
→ destiny583 : 去翻了一下老J的BT Alice不是1/1 18Z才升格嗎@@ 12/31 16:54
推 wl3532 : 之前看卡大fb是說艾麗絲最早 12/31 16:55
→ destiny583 : CWB似乎是00Z沒錯 但當時負責命名的老J是18Z才升格 12/31 17:02
推 Eeli2008 : 帕布跳過了？ 12/31 17:20
推 ben108472 : 36W與35W不是同一個系統了 12/31 17:30
推 WuCH1022 : 這位不行就下面一位 12/31 17:38
→ destiny583 : T值2.0了@@ 12/31 17:39
→ destiny583 : 會不會晚上8點升格阿 12/31 17:40
推 fajita : 帕布又還沒被命名，怎可能跳過？ 12/31 21:03
※ 編輯: destiny583 (220.142.90.75), 01/01/2019 00:11:04
推 truffaut : 不會到孟加拉灣又增強吧 01/01 11:09
推 Bustycat : 命不命名以JMA分析為準，一直都CI1.5。 01/01 13:24
推 Bustycat : 06Z JMA CI2.0 DT2.0 MET2.0 PT2.0 FT2.0 有望升格 01/01 14:07
推 Bustycat : 命名Pabuk 1901 01/01 15:09
