作者dunking (冷鋒過境)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 94W TCFA+GW
時間Mon Nov 25 23:53:51 2019
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/94W_250900sair.jpg
即將形成的北冕颱風，將來挑戰哈隆年度風王的位置了!!
看看那寬廣的雲系，看起來是偏向龐然大物一隻...
WTPN21 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 156.7E TO 12.5N 144.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 154.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 154.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE AND LITTLE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 250323Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A LARGELY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. 94W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING, WITH THE LLC TIGHTENING AND REACHING WARNING CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN
ENHANCED WIND FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE BEFORE THE CIRCULATION FULLY
DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260900Z.//
NNNN
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9419.gif
熱帯低気圧
令和元年11月25日22時05分 発表
<25日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 トラック諸島近海
中心位置 北緯 9度10分(9.2度)
東経 153度30分(153.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
<26日09時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 10度10分(10.2度)
東経 149度25分(149.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西 35km/h(20kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 140km(75NM)
<26日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 11度30分(11.5度)
東経 145度35分(145.6度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 35km/h(20kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 190km(100NM)
https://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/images/zooml/a-00.png
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推 WuCH1022 : 她有個姐姐在南半球叫麗塔 11/25 23:57
※ 編輯: dunking (114.47.71.190 臺灣), 11/26/2019 00:16:34
推 kbty245 : 這隻基本上保底140kts 11/26 00:45
→ kbty245 : 海溫跟高空條件都有到位 11/26 00:45
→ dunking : 不怕它發展得多強 只怕JTWC再度耍蠢... 11/26 00:55
推 a851315 : 走超快 11/26 01:05
推 Bustycat : 和南半球的Rita成對生成，只是Rita過巔峰了 11/26 01:17
推 DoraBoy : 看來變數還很大 11/26 04:58
推 openrobert : JMA升了 11/26 09:22
