[情報] 16W生成

[exempt (123)]

遠洋來的訪客16W

JTWC第一報

https://i.imgur.com/u1XjVXl.gif

GFS系集
https://i.imgur.com/g6jkqtG.png

EC系集
https://i.imgur.com/Opxf8I4.png


JTWC說明文

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) HAS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT CROSSED THE DATELINE.
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND SOME SHEAR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY HAD
CONSTRAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HELD THE CONVECTION OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE LLCC DURING THE DAY. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND A
RELAXATION AND REORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR, HAS ALLOWED THE
CONVECTION TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, CIMSS ANALYSIS AND JTWC 200MB ANALYSIS
REVEALS A SMALL POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF TD 16W, WHILE A TUTT CELL
LIES ABOUT 700 NM TO THE NW, PROVIDING MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TUTT. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS IT HAS MOVED INTO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE WEAK GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR CENTER NW OF KAUAI AND ANOTHER LARGER STR
CENTER NEAR 30N 150E. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TD
16W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD, ALONG A
SHALLOW SINE-WAVE TRACK WITH MINOR DEVIATIONS NORTH AND SOUTH OF
DUE WEST, ALONG THE BASE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. TD 16W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS THE
TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES WEST AHEAD OF TD 16W AND REMAINS
IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. BY TAU 36 THE TUTT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED
BY RIDGING ALOFT, PUSHING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER TOP OF TD 16W AND
WEAKENING THE OUTFLOW. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN RELATIVELY
LOW SHEAR AND OVER VERY WARM WATERS, THE LACK OF OUTFLOW WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT, LEADING TO WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL OFFSET LOW TO MODERATE
VWS AND WARM SSTS, WITH TD 16W MAINTAINING WEAK MINIMAL TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE TRACKERS CLUSTERED WITHIN A 60 NM
ENVELOPE AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO 135 NM AT TAU 120. NAVGEM IS THE
SOLE OUTLIER, THAT WHILE FOLLOWING THE SAME TRACK SHAPE, IS
DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE OTHER TRACKERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES
SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND CLOSELY TRACKS THE GFS
ENSEMBLE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED,
WITH THE DECAY SHIPS (GFS AND NAVGEM) INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING AFTER TAU 72, WHILE THE COAMPS-TC AND HWRF MODELS
INDICATING MORE MODERATE NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION AND A FLAT
TRAJECTORY THEREAFTER. ANALYSIS OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHARP INTENSIFICATION IS DUE PRIMARILY TO SST POTENTIAL AND SAMPLE
CHANGE VICE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, WHILE THE HWRF AND OTHER
MODELS SEEM TO BE TRACKING THE CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT AND ARE
MORE REALISTIC IN THEIR IMPACTS. HENCE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AND
BELOW THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 101.9.239.225 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1628607019.A.56D.html
推 godfrey2266 : 不會大老遠跑來台灣吧！？
推 vaughn      : 很少在160以東生成能到台灣的
→ vaughn      : 如果過了160E還沒北轉，就比較有戲
→ jimmychung07: EC 12 00Z還蠻支持它走到臺灣附近說XDD
推 StarFox0910 : 系集看起來好像是日本貨？
推 reborner2009: 要過來台灣好像要看副高的臉色 提早北轉機率很高
推 WuCH1022    : 以目前季內振盪配置 要走到台灣附近是有可能的
→ WuCH1022    : 連常常算一算就崩掉副高的GFS也還是把十天後副高
推 killseven   : 不管有沒有走到台灣附近 72小時內決勝負xd
→ WuCH1022    : 報很強
推 Capital235  : gfs畫餅中 月底會有二顆來
→ Capital235  : 但是當颱風接近副高就軟掉了
推 kbty245     : 也要它能撐到台灣
→ kbty245     : 目前模式報的副高普遍很強，把擾動壓的寸草不生
→ kbty245     : 連一向會過度預報擾動強度的NCEP都認為要到台灣附近
→ kbty245     : 才有明顯發展
→ kbty245     : 不過還是能再看看會不會有驚喜
推 jimmychung07: 超長一段路要走…
→ jimmychung07: https://i.imgur.com/ShQa13A.gif
→ jimmychung07: 現在處的環境似乎還不錯耶 中心正在爆對流
→ exempt      : 加減看,觀察這隻來打發時間~~
→ hsr7016     : 會爆可是被切
→ hsr7016     : 反正到底有沒有也是兩周後的事 就茶餘飯後看看
推 aegis43210  : 八月澳大利亞高壓吹來的跨赤道氣流還很弱，所以還真
→ aegis43210  : 不知道GEFS的北轉系集是發生什麼事了…
推 jimmychung07: 北邊發展就會被切受限 南邊對流應該還行
→ exempt      : JTWC預報員說16W發展到35KTS後就會因為輻散太弱,發
→ exempt      : 展受阻?????
推 WuCH1022    : 北邊副高接下來跟鬼一樣 高層極向輻散大概等於沒了
推 aegis43210  : 而且副高南側下沉氣流會降低邊界層濕度，無法啟動WI
→ aegis43210  : SHE機制
推 aegis43210  : EC預報兩週後MJO才到蘇門答臘，還無法提供支援
推 brabra      : 這個月澳大利亞跨赤道流應該要開始變強了吧？
推 proman614   : 反正這幾年劇本走到台灣附近就轉彎了
推 HellFly     : 副高偏北的結果 原本會來的 就變靠近轉彎
推 cyit15      : 哈 這一報修的真多 本來登陸廣東 變成台灣東邊北轉
推 cyit15      : 看來到最後 應該連日本都摸不到
推 desire501   : 漫漫長路啊 嘖嘖
推 cyit15      : 應該會比菸花更東邊就北轉
推 aegis43210  : 又不是在仙人指路，別對120hr之後的太認真
推 typhoonnat  : 還要將近兩週才到東亞陸地 現在就在對預報認真幹嘛X
→ typhoonnat  : D
→ kyodasakana : 想借這篇討論一下 之前奧運期間北海道創百年高溫
→ kyodasakana : 昨天日本多處大雨 函館有地方創觀測史最大日降雨量
→ kyodasakana : 是盧碧剩下的熱低壓造成嗎？
→ kyodasakana : https://bit.ly/3Cz2L2T
推 aegis43210  : 日本不會有熱低壓，那是近年來偏熱的日本海海陸風輻
→ aegis43210  : 合加上冷空氣的些許共伴
→ aegis43210  : 日本海夏季異常偏熱好幾年了，今年也到了26~27度那
→ aegis43210  : 麼高
推 embeth0925  : 48小時內再來看～～～
推 hyscout     : 是盧碧沒錯但是變溫帶氣旋不是熱帶性低氣壓
→ hihancom    : 熱帶性低氣壓 不是 熱低壓，這是兩種完全不同的東
→ hihancom    : 西，熱低壓通常出現在陸地上，不要亂用
推 WuCH1022    : 16W基底是東風波比較不怕副高 但小環流怕垂直風切
推 lovez04wj06 : 還很遠，別怕
推 aitt        : 若是北轉不知會不會帶下一些冷空氣.
推 lineage80478: @h大、亂簡稱的人多了去了～
推 embeth0925  : 每個都怕風切吧......
→ aitt        : 夏季天氣最大變數往往是颱風出現和走向
推 WuCH1022    : 按照BSISO 十幾天後換成長江要被副高佔據吧
→ embeth0925  : 上個東風波出身的出名颱風應該是酋長？
→ aitt        : 像是本來預估可以穩定的天氣.往往颱風出現就會變化
推 WuCH1022    : 16W來到菲律賓海一帶沒多少西南季風能支援
→ WuCH1022    : 他自己環流也沒多大  基本上撼動不了副高
→ WuCH1022    : 真要能北轉也是北邊槽線
→ WuCH1022    : 了不起就是現在長江的天氣
→ typhoonnat  : 這種一臉會禿頭的樣子 先想辦法活過一星期吧
推 kbty245     : 北側TUTT帶來滿強的風切的
→ kbty245     : 不過根據GFS預報，之後隨著TUTT尾端割離出高空冷心
→ kbty245     : 低壓，風切會減弱很多
推 hotanger    : 還早 下禮拜再看
推 chikorita   : 不期不待，再看看
推 Im22Yo      : 不期不待沒有傷害
推 HellFly     : EC系集也轉不看好了 有幾個成員甚至會消散
→ jerrey      : 不可能平西
→ airua       : 死～在～海～上～？
推 cyit15      : GFS真的每一報都在變耶 06Z這一報又改回類似菸花
→ cyit15      : 的路徑Y
推 hsr7016     : 15天後的是當然一變再變XD
推 cyit15      : 不過變成非常靠近台灣才增強起來
推 MarcusWright: GFS持續報出16W十天後接近台灣，且後頭菲東再生一
→ MarcusWright: 個更強的，怎麼都沒人討論@@
→ airua       : 餅不夠多
推 killseven   : 時間還那麼久 真的現在討論太早啦
→ killseven   : 而且今年72小時內預報大改的次數偏多  真的近了在
→ killseven   : 三天左右在看也來的及
推 Kobe105     : 大旱   已經習慣力場的存在了