[討論] 熱帶風暴Ida

[exempt (123)]

Ida快速增強,己經達到颶風等級,目前強度為70KTS,約

中颱下限。

https://i.imgur.com/lRUIplm.gif

https://i.imgur.com/pv0sexe.gif

墨西哥灣的高海溫、潮濕空氣和低風切十分有利於Ida發展

Ida很有可能在登陸之前增強至120KTS,約中颱上限的強度。

另外,Ida的風場也將持續擴大。

海溫圖:https://i.imgur.com/LIRGary.png

風切圖:https://i.imgur.com/4WCRaXK.gif

輻散圖:https://i.imgur.com/PdDnnk0.gif

The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern
portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is
forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, it will be moving throu
gh a very favorable oceanic and
atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content
waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level
atmosphere.  These conditions are likely to result in a period
of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.  In fact,
with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has
significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance
now brings Ida to category 4 intensity.  The NHC forecast explicitly
calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours,
which is supported by several of the dynamical models, the LGEM
model, and high probabilities of rapid intensification indicated
by the SHIPS and DTOPS RI guidance.  The NHC forecast is near
the IVCN multi-model consensus aid, but is lower than HCCA and
LGEM.  It should be noted that some fluctuations in intensity are
possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible
eyewall replacement cycles.  In addition to the expected increase in
strength, the dynamical model guidance again calls for Ida's wind
field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.  As a
result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and
powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast
by late this weekend and early next week.



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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 101.9.50.178 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1630060742.A.B78.html
推 killseven   : 西太風季冷到去觀察北大了xd
推 aegis43210  : 30日就登陸了，來期待飛機實測吧
推 keroromoa   : 北大今年到目前為止還有點黯淡，雖然西太扣掉舒力基
→ keroromoa   : 也差不多
※ 編輯: exempt (101.9.50.111 臺灣), 08/28/2021 09:15:58
推 aegis43210  : 又是紐奧良，但強度應不會那麼強
推 Bustycat    : https://www.noaa.gov/ida
→ exempt      : https://i.imgur.com/70wkzmy.gif 輻散超猛
推 aegis43210  : EC和FV3一樣強度只報到90KT，HMON報到115KT
推 Eeli2008    : 東太平洋那顆 沿著美國東岸掃上去？
→ Eeli2008    : 說錯 西岸
→ kbty245     : 開始爆發增強了，昨晚到現在中心氣壓已經下降超過20
→ kbty245     : 百帕
→ kbty245     : http://i.imgur.com/eX1cRYy.jpg
→ exempt      : 最近6小時,風切都很友善。輻散也不錯~~
推 aegis43210  : FV3給巔峰95kt，955hpa，HMON給巔峰130Kt，940hpa
→ aegis43210  : 預計台灣時間30日凌晨兩點登陸
推 kbty245     : 上一次穿心結果115kts 949mb
→ kbty245     : 增強速度快的嚇人，高空輻散條件太好了
推 aegis43210  : SHA也很棒，代表艾達颶風沒吸到任何冷水
推 aegis43210  : NHC給貓四了
→ kbty245     : 原訂0530Z要進行的穿心偵查的TEAL 72似乎遇到問題返
→ kbty245     : 航了，下一次穿心要等0830Z的TEAL 73
推 aegis43210  : 因為不像Katrina一樣有經過眼牆置換，紐奧良的風險
→ aegis43210  : 是小了些
推 jimmychung07: 畢竟不是像臺灣東部的岩岸，風暴潮對美國來說還是
→ jimmychung07: 威脅很大
→ exempt      : 30度SST、10-15的風切、良好的輻散~~
推 kbty245     : 最新一次的穿心 SFMR 131kts 氣壓936mb
推 kbty245     : 緊接一架的穿心 SFMR 140kts 估計氣壓932.3mb
推 jasonccr    : 140 kts!!!
推 killseven   : 這可以稱為 猛爆性增強嗎?
→ exempt      : 可以喊到C5了嗎???
推 aegis43210  : 肯定是RI，一天內已經下降30mb了
→ aegis43210  : NHC給130kts了，STY
推 killseven   : 而且也算近岸增強了吧
→ cheny10     : 好猛
→ jimmychung07: https://i.imgur.com/UEQaJre.gif
→ jimmychung07: 路易斯安那州真的挫勒蛋啊
推 WeGoYuSheng : http://i.imgur.com/WpCo20g.jpg
→ WeGoYuSheng : 路易斯安那州接近登陸點的Grand Isle ，房子墊這麼
→ WeGoYuSheng : 高，但不知是否真的有用？雖然會撤離，但暴潮一來、
→ WeGoYuSheng : 風摧下去 應該蠻大機率還是會被摧毀吧
推 jimmychung07: 木頭…弱不禁風
→ exempt      : https://i.imgur.com/VbGbVWF.gif
→ kbty245     : 結構逐漸轉差，實測氣壓有回升，風速也開始下降，巔
→ kbty245     : 峰應該已經過了
推 aegis43210  : NHC的強度預測很準，不過要眼牆置換，對陸地威脅上
→ aegis43210  : 升中
→ aegis43210  : 大風場颶風最可怕
推 kbty245     : http://i.imgur.com/SSLXkoR.jpg
→ kbty245     : 風速實測沒出現明顯雙峰，應該還只是外眼形成前的雨
→ kbty245     : 帶而已
推 aegis43210  : 原來還只是雨帶，那對陸地是好消息
推 seancschang : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcbk3NcScRM
推 seancschang : 登陸地點實況風雨蠻驚人的
推 aegis43210  : 半小時內即將登陸
推 jimmylily   : https://youtu.be/1ziciboPx7w
→ jimmylily   : 風雨感覺在增強
推 kbty245     : 雨帶發展成雙眼牆了，風速實測出現明顯的雙峰
→ kbty245     : http://i.imgur.com/qOupx2w.jpg
推 aegis43210  : 應該登陸了
推 jimmychung07: 哇近岸的發展也是瞬息萬變
→ aegis43210  : 是因為換置才減弱，雖然是可預期，但還是感到惆悵
→ jimmychung07:  https://i.imgur.com/V1rDd8U.gif
→ jimmychung07: 眼進一半還沒完全上陸
推 ohwahahaha  : 電影龍捲風裡的F5龍捲風是不是叫Ada? 差一個字而已