[討論] 91W TD[W]/TCFA

[kadar (卡卡達達)]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 18.5N 110.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NW 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

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WTPN22 PGTW 180030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171430Z AUG 25//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 171430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2N 108.1E TO 21.7N 107.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.4N 108.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.9N 111.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.0E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ALSO HAVING CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A CONTRACTING WIND FIELD AND REDUCTION OF THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS INDICATES THAT A TRANSITION FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS COMMENCING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOW A FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL DEVELOP, BUT WITH THE ECENS
MODEL BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190030Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 127.1E.//
NNNN

https://i.meee.com.tw/njnnqHT.gif

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這傢伙中國跟美國終於把中心訂為一樣的了
某種程度來說算是解決多中心混戰了嗎(?)
https://i.meee.com.tw/iv1rvTz.jpg

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推 ez910115    : 不到海南島
推 Bustycat    : 現在是17W
→ airlon      : 不知道身體不好CD
推 killseven   : 不過這次小j那麼慢才命名我有點驚訝，過往對日本有
→ killseven   : 影響的td.小j往往是太早命名甚至有的不用命名。例如
→ killseven   : 瑪瑙之類的，這次倒是有點出乎意料的慢說