[颱風] 92W TCFA

[kadar (卡卡達達)]

WTPN21 PGTW 181400
（…）
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0N 147.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS),
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES
AND INTENSIFIES WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191400Z.//
NNNN

https://i.imgur.com/VoModDt.gif

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GFS
https://i.imgur.com/7I2yUOb.png

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/JxtNfyq.png

AIGFS
https://i.imgur.com/XC6aBP4.png

AIFS
https://i.imgur.com/d29jdg7.jpeg

GENC
(待補）

FNV3
https://i.imgur.com/kxgDaMt.png


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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1781795200.A.99A.html
※ 編輯: kadar (42.78.167.115 臺灣), 06/18/2026 23:10:05
※ 編輯: kadar (42.78.167.115 臺灣), 06/18/2026 23:11:38
推 uodam64402  : 感覺AIFS和FNV3在92W潛在侵台可能的差異，很可能就
→ uodam64402  : 是93W的加強速度，構不構成雙颱來牽制92W的北轉時間
→ uodam64402  : 和北轉幅度。另外93W是加強北轉，還是被風切抑制到
→ uodam64402  : 菲東才開始加強，也關乎到臺灣到6月底能不能出梅。
→ uodam64402  : AIFS系集略看好93W較快加強；FNV3則是加強緩慢。
推 exempt      : AIFS、FNV3、GenCast 的系集應該是貼錯了，18 06Z
推 Seaslut     : 後面那顆有機會
→ exempt      :  的系集才對
※ 編輯: kadar (42.78.167.115 臺灣), 06/18/2026 23:57:00
→ airua       : 下麵一味
推 exempt      : 07W !
推 exempt      : https://i.mopix.cc/zLH3hL.jpg
推 TopGun2     : 又要吃下沉？
推 lyl817      : https://i.verb.tw/jEb60pqA.jpg
推 WuCH1022    : GW也發了
推 Championlins: 目前這預測路徑再偏一點有機會發海警吧！
推 food36      : 又是直撲沖繩誒
推 CCAP        : 西軍集合
推 a835282000  : 距離還差很遠，且半徑預測沒這麼大，要海警還很拼
推 WuCH1022    : 這顆基底是東風波，不一定能長到很大
→ WuCH1022    : 但按照AI的堅持和傳統數值的調整，需要發警報並非
→ WuCH1022    : 不可能