→ ppbro: AE的C&S好猛 下一季看能不能解放了 06/28 22:45
https://tinyurl.com/4zt637nv (部分節錄)
On Tuesday Connelly dumped Julius Randle and his $33-million
contract for little more than salary-cap flexibility, punting the
player who led the team in assists and was second in scoring last
season. For almost 48 hours, people figured that Naz Reid was
finally going to get his chance to start in Randle’s stead at
power forward after logging seven years of patience and
production.
就在週二,Connelly 放棄了上賽季全隊助攻王且得分高居第二的球員,將
Julius Randle 及其 3300 萬美元的合約打包送走,僅換回了些許的薪資
靈活性。在接下來的大約 48 小時內,所有人都在想,在熬了整整七年的
耐心等待與穩定貢獻後,Naz Reid 終於要迎來頂替 Randle 擔任先發四號
的機會了。
But on Thursday, for the second time in three years (including
then-9 year Wolves veteran Karl-Anthony Towns in 2024), Connelly
shocked the fan base and most of the NBA by trading Minnesota’s
longest-tenured player. Naz is a folk hero here. Hundreds of
people have Naz Reid tattoos. Beach towels bearing his name that
were a giveaway promotion two years ago now sell for triple-digit
dollar amounts on eBay.
但在週四,這已經是 Connelly 三年內第二次(包括 2024 年送走效力灰狼
9 年的老將 Karl-Anthony Towns)震驚了自家球迷以及整個 NBA 聯盟,
他交易掉了明尼蘇達效力最久的球員。Naz 在這裡就像個平民英雄。有數百
名球迷身上刺著 Naz Reid 的紋身;兩年前作為贈品派發、印有他名字的海
灘毛巾,現在 eBay 上甚至能賣到三位數的美元。
In addition to parting with Naz, Connelly took out approximately
the 6th, 7th and 8th mortgages on the Wolves draft capital since
he took over as POBO five years ago. Gone is Minnesota’s
first-round pick in 2033, which was the soonest one still
available for them to trade under league rules, which stipulate
you can’t lose your top pick two years in a row. But you can
agree to give a team the choice to swap draft positions with you,
and the Wolves have granted the Charlotte Hornets the right to
swap positions with them in the 2028, 2029 and 2030 drafts. As a
final sweetener, the Hornets get the Wolves second-round picks in
2029, 2032 and 2033.
除了與 Naz 割愛道別外,Connelly 還把灰狼隊的選秀資產拿去進行了自他
五年前接任籃球營運總裁以來的第 6、第 7 和第 8 次「抵押」。明尼蘇達
2033 年的首輪選秀權沒了,根據聯盟規定不能連續兩年失去首輪籤,
這是他們目前唯一符合交易資格且最早的一枚首輪籤。不過,規則允許你答
應讓對手擁有交換選秀順位的權利,因此灰狼隊賦予了夏洛特黃蜂在 2028、
2029 和 2030 年選秀中與他們互換順位的權利。作為最後的甜頭,黃蜂隊還
拿到了灰狼隊 2029、2032 和 2033 年的次輪選秀權。
In return, the Wolves get back the best player in the deal, point
guard LaMelo Ball, and a backup wing player on an expiring
contract this coming season, Josh Green.
作為回報,灰狼隊得到了這筆交易中最好的球員:控球後衛 LaMelo Ball
,以及合約年的替補側翼球員 Josh Green。
Ball’s pros and cons are both gilded in neon. At age 25 (he is 17
days younger than Anthony Edwards), he is already one of the best
pure point guards in the NBA, with a career assist percentage
that is currently fourth best among active players, behind only
Trae Young, Luka Doncic and Russell Westbrook.
Ball 的優缺點都像霓虹燈般顯眼。現年 25 歲的他 (只比 Anthony
Edwards 小 17 天),已經是 NBA 最頂尖的純控球後衛之一,其生涯助攻率
目前在現役球員中高居第四,僅次於 Trae Young、Luka Doncic 和
Russell Westbrook。
As the names ahead of him indicate, assist percentage rises in
sync with ball dominant, high usage performance. For this trade to
succeed, Ball will have to integrate his playmaking and thus
improve his efficiency by more overtly enabling teammates
significantly more talented than the rosters in Charlotte his
first six seasons.
正如排在他前面的那些名字所顯示的,助攻率通常會隨著大量持球和高使用
率的表現而同步攀升。這筆交易若想成功,Ball 必須融入他的組織能力,透
過更主動地去成就那些遠比他在夏洛特更有天賦的隊友,進而提升自己的效率。
In that sense, his play for the Hornets in the 2025-26 campaign
was very encouraging. His usage declined from an NBA-high of 35.9
in 2024-25 to 32 this past season, even as he was setting career
highs in assists and assist-to-turnover ratio. Put simply, he
thrived running an offense that surrounded him with more talent.
從這個角度來看,他在 2025-26 賽季為黃蜂隊效力的表現是非常令人振奮的
。他的 USG% 從 2024-25 賽季全 NBA 最高的 35.9 下降到了上賽季的 32,
但與此同時,他的助攻數和助攻失誤比卻雙雙創下生涯新高。簡單來說
,當身在更多天賦的團隊中,他更專注於擔任進攻發動機。
In 2024-25, Charlotte finished 29th among the 30 NBA teams in
offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) with a rating
of 106.7. But even at that low level, with LaMelo on the court
the Hornets scored 112.7 points per 100 possessions, compared with
101.5 points when he was out. This past season, the team
flourished with Ball at the helm, scoring 118.4 points per 100
possessions, 5th best in the NBA. After the All-Star break, they
poured in 121.8 points per 100 possessions, second only to San
Antonio. And while sharpshooting teammates like rookie Kon
Knueppel provided a welcome boost, Ball was the unquestioned floor
general. For the season, the Hornets scored 123.2 points per 100
possessions when he played and 110.6 when he didn’t.
在 2024-25 賽季,夏洛特在 NBA 30 支球隊中排名第 29 倒數第二,進攻效
率(每 100 回合得分)僅有 106.7。但即便在如此低迷的水準下,當
LaMelo 在場時,黃蜂隊每 100 回合能攻下 112.7 分,而當他不在場時則暴
跌至 101.5 分。到了剛結束的這個賽季,球隊在 Ball 的掌舵下突飛猛進,
每 100 回合得分達到 118.4 分,高居 NBA 第 5 位。全明星賽過後,他們
更是轟下每 100 回合 121.8 分的恐怖火力,僅次於 San Antonio。雖然像
新秀 Kon Knueppel 這樣的外線神射隊友帶來了及時雨般的幫助,但 Ball
毫無疑問是那名場上將軍。整個賽季下來,當他在場時,黃蜂隊每 100 回合
能攻下 123.2 分,不在場時則僅有 110.6 分。
Connelly parted with Naz and mortgaged the draft because getting a
young, capable point guard that would enable Ant to play off the
ball more often was identified as the team’s top offseason priority.
Connelly 之所以願意割愛 Naz 並抵押選秀權,是因為球隊在今年休賽季的
首要任務,就被定調為必須找來一名年輕且具備即戰力的控球後衛,好讓
Ant 能更頻繁地切換至無球進攻。
Nobody explains why this is so better than John Schuhmann, the
maestro of analytics over at nba.com. He points out that among the
308 players who attempted at least 75 catch-and-shoot
three-pointers last season, nobody was more accurate than Ant, who
at 69-for-139 was flame-throwing at 49.6% accuracy. Compare that
to the 35.3% that Ant shot on 363 pull-up three-pointers.
沒有人比 nba.com 的數據分析大師 John Schuhmann 更能解釋這其中的個中
奧妙了。他指出,在上賽季至少嘗試了 75 次接球投籃(catch-and-shoot
)三分球的 308 名球員中,沒有人比 Ant 更精準了,他 139 投 69 中,命
中率是超狂的 49.6%。相比之下,Ant 在 363 次持球急停跳投(pull-up)
三分球中的命中率卻只有 35.3%。
That added 14.6% on catch-and-shoot treys over pull-up treys was
the third-highest positive differential among those 308 shooters.
But whereas those other two players could concentrate on off-ball
movement to maximize their efficiency, Ant was saddled with
point-guard responsibilities. In fact, if we look at the other
four players among the top five in positive catch-and-shoot
efficiency, those C&S attempts dominated their shot mix from long
range: 59% (Daniss Jenkins), 47% (Paolo Banchero), 66% (Quentin
Grimes) and 71% (Immanuel Quickley). By contrast, just 28% of Ant’
s total three-point tries were catch-and-shoot attempts.
在接球投籃與急停跳投三分球之間高達 14.6% 的命中率差距,在上述 308
名射手之中高居正向差值第三名。然而,排在前兩名的球員可以心無旁鶩地
專注於無球跑動來最大化他們的效率,Ant 卻被沉重的控球職責給束縛住了
。事實上,如果我們觀察接球投籃效率前五名中的其他四位球員,這種 C&S
的嘗試在他們的外線出手比例中佔據了主導地位:分別是 59% (Daniss
Jenkins)、47% (Paolo Banchero)、66% (Quentin Grimes) 和 71%
(Immanuel Quickley)。反觀 Ant,他所有的三分球嘗試中,竟然只有 28%
屬於接球投籃。
With Ball now on board to run the offense more frequently, Ant can
make himself available for more off-ball, catch-and-shoot
chances. And when Ant faces the barrage of double-teams and
aggressive gap-help defense that has increasingly beset him
throughout his NBA career, he has an ace playmaker to help pierce
the seams of that strategy.
隨著 Ball 的加入並更頻繁地主導進攻,Ant 終於能將自己解放出來,去創
造更多無球走位和接球投籃的機會。而且,當 Ant 未來再度面對在其 NBA
生涯中愈發頻繁出現的包夾夾擊和具侵略性的協防陷阱時,他身邊現在有了
一位王牌組織者,能幫助他精準撕裂對手的防守防線。
Meanwhile, sharing the court with Ant will likewise dramatically
improve Ball’s offensive efficiency, if he is savvy and
disciplined enough to exploit it. One of the more glaring flaws in
Ball’s game is terrible shot selection – he will capriciously
launch a trey early in the shot clock or otherwise ignore
teammates and call his own number. This is probably a habit left
over from when the Hornets were terrible. But last season, he led
the NBA in three-point attempts with 740. Yes, he made 272, for a
credible 36.8%. But it bears noting that Knueppel had one more
make in 98 fewer attempts (42.5% overall), or that even saddled
with point-guard duties, Ant still managed to make 39.9% of his
threes last season.
與此同時,只要 Ball 夠聰明且具備足夠的紀律去善加利用,與 Ant 同場聯
手也將大幅提升他自身的進攻效率。Ball 比賽中較顯著的缺點之一就是糟糕
的出手選擇,他常常在進攻時間剛開始時就任性地砍大號三分,或者忽視
隊友自己盲目單幹。這很可能是黃蜂隊以前積弱不振時留下的壞習慣。在上
個賽季,他以 740 次三分出手冠絕全 NBA。是的,他投進了 272 球,
36.8% 的命中率算得上及格;但值得注意的是,Knueppel 在少出手 98 次的
情況下還比他多投進了一球(整體命中率 42.5%),甚至連當時還被控球重
任拖累的 Ant,上賽季的三分命中率也有 39.9%。
Bottom line, Ant is not a flashy specialist like Knueppel; he’s
the heartbeat of the franchise and the player to whom Ball must
defer when Ant has the advantage.
說到底,Ant 不是像 Knueppel 那樣功能單一的華麗射手;他是這支球隊的
靈魂與心臟,當 Ant 佔據對位優勢時,Ball 必須懂得適時退讓與配合。
A lot of these perceived weaknesses might simply be explained by
Ball’s experience in Charlotte. Connelly famously made the Gobert
trade to hasten Ant’s postseason immersion and thus fast-forward
his growth in the crucible of big games played for big stakes.
Ant has participated in 52 playoff games. Ball has participated in
none.
許多被外界視為缺點的毛病,或許單純可以用 Ball 在夏洛特的打球經歷來
解釋。眾所皆知,Connelly 當年發動 Gobert 的交易,是為了加速讓 Ant
沉浸在季後賽的高強度中,從而讓他在那種勝負攸關的大型戰役熔爐中快轉
成長。如今 Ant 已經參與了 52 場季後賽,而 Ball 到目前為止是一場都沒
打過。
Aside from elevating Ant, a reason to be excited about Ball’s
arrival is the way he and Rudy Gobert can improve each other’s
game. Another knock on Ball has been his defense. At 6-feet,
7-inches, he has great height on the perimeter and should be able
to execute on-ball coverage better than his numbers indicate.
Although his defensive shortcomings were more than compensated for
by his offensive acumen in Charlotte, the Hornets always allowed
fewer points per possession when he sat compared with when he
played.
除了能昇華 Ant 之外,另一個對 Ball 的到來感到興奮的理由,是他與
Rudy Gobert 能夠如何相輔相成。Ball 的另一個為人詬病的缺點是防守。擁
有 6 呎 7 吋的身高,他在外線具備極佳的身材優勢,理應能展現出比數據
呈現更好的持球防守能力。雖然他在夏洛特時,其防守端的問題足以被他進
攻端的才華所彌補,但黃蜂隊在他坐在替補席時,每回合的失分總是比他在
場上時來得少。
Enter Gobert, whose defensive presence enables his teammates to
tighten coverage, knowing they have a superb rim protector behind
them. Ball has never been able to count on someone with that much
presence and dedication at that end of the court. And on the flip
side, Ball is the best lob initiator and pick-and-roll partner
Gobert has played with, at least since his arrival in Minnesota.
It is a well-known fact that if Rudy can get rolling early on
offensive, his entire game – and, by extension, his team’s play
– becomes more capable and alert.
這時候 Gobert 的價值就體現出來了,他的防守威懾力能讓隊友們大膽擴大
外線防守防線,因為他們知道後方有一位頂級的籃框保護者在撐腰。Ball 生
涯至今從未擁有過如此具備存在感與防守專注度的內線支柱。而從另一個角
度看,Ball 也是自 Gobert 來到明尼蘇達以來,所搭檔過最棒的空接傳球者
與擋拆夥伴。眾所皆知,如果 Rudy 能夠在進攻端早早找到節奏,他的整場
比賽表現,進而延伸到全隊的發揮,都會變得更具主動性與警覺心。
A final red flag on the Ball trade is the question of his
durability. He has played over 70 games just twice in his six-year
career, and there were prolonged absences in many of the other
four, with game totals running from 51 games his rookie season
down to 36, 22 and 47 in years three, four and five.
關於 Ball 這筆交易的最後一個隱憂,是他的續航力問題。在他至今六年的
職業生涯中,只有兩次單季出場超過 70 場比賽,在其餘四個賽季中都曾遭
遇過長期的因傷缺陣,出賽場次從新秀賽季的 51 場,一路下滑到第三、第
四和第五年的 36 場、22 場和 47 場。
So, yes, there is risk involved. But that is why you can get a
player of Ball’s caliber for a sixth-man and a boatload of
fair-to-middling draft capital.
所以,是的,這當中確實伴隨著巨大的風險。但話說回來,這也正是為什麼
你只用了一名最佳第六人加上一堆預期順位普通、不上不下的選秀資產,就
能換來一名 Ball 這種頂級天賦球員的原因。
---
球三和現有主力融合度比Randle高很多。
解放AE無球端影響力,破解包夾陷阱,
讓狗貝更多參與進攻,本身防守狀況有隊友可以掩護。
當然他本身能否在換環境後,心態更加成熟,也是觀察重點。
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