作者BahasaMelayu (馬來西亞國語)
看板ToS
標題Re: [心得] 神魔幻匣道中統計(3251抽)
時間Tue Jul 19 15:23:34 2016
關於有沒有保底這回事，誰也拿不出證據。
爭論沒有意義，不如做點實驗，
大家用自己喜歡的觀點看待都市傳說就好。
用python跑點簡單的實驗 觀察數字分布
沒有保底，81取2，每張機率均等抽10000張
python code
http://survivor.ntu.edu.tw/maybaodi.py
黑妍數量: 248
10000抽之中中黑妍的編號
[9, 11, 59, 126, 141, 153, 220, 222, 233, 248, 250, 448, 467, 483, 487, 512,
541, 563, 602, 615, 668, 671, 724, 727, 753, 801, 857, 920, 1005, 1009, 1083,
1220, 1250, 1294, 1310, 1321, 1460, 1498, 1518, 1551, 1667, 1697, 1721, 1735,
1764, 1810, 1842, 1845, 1884, 1969, 1989, 2030, 2032, 2056, 2061, 2074, 2131,
2146, 2224, 2289, 2339, 2361, 2367, 2387, 2482, 2565, 2588, 2644, 2645, 2650,
2657, 2679, 2698, 2720, 2772, 2776, 2781, 2782, 2950, 2956, 2994, 3028, 3031,
3046, 3100, 3159, 3239, 3265, 3308, 3318, 3477, 3492, 3495, 3575, 3579, 3623,
3682, 3884, 3950, 3955, 3992, 4041, 4092, 4101, 4102, 4167, 4235, 4267, 4269,
4276, 4295, 4311, 4313, 4413, 4490, 4502, 4554, 4669, 4735, 4751, 4773, 4803,
4908, 4971, 5058, 5065, 5127, 5159, 5169, 5249, 5250, 5269, 5276, 5308, 5319,
5343, 5426, 5457, 5519, 5558, 5561, 5563, 5585, 5651, 5653, 5753, 5878, 5914,
5935, 5939, 5941, 6077, 6117, 6168, 6192, 6194, 6256, 6298, 6315, 6364, 6387,
6502, 6547, 6564, 6576, 6584, 6631, 6671, 6702, 6726, 6738, 6816, 6874, 6892,
6982, 7006, 7136, 7166, 7168, 7182, 7240, 7249, 7263, 7304, 7338, 7547, 7614,
7639, 7659, 7661, 7749, 7754, 7792, 7806, 7842, 7872, 7910, 7924, 7980, 8080,
8086, 8088, 8248, 8266, 8298, 8332, 8340, 8360, 8452, 8466, 8539, 8575, 8629,
8663, 8699, 8708, 8758, 8781, 8855, 8892, 8938, 9086, 9119, 9168, 9178, 9283,
9287, 9303, 9324, 9480, 9494, 9514, 9547, 9569, 9582, 9624, 9626, 9695, 9707,
9716, 9751, 9816, 9838, 9851, 9894, 9938, 9940, 9967]
兩次抽到黑妍之間的張數
[2, 48, 67, 15, 12, 67, 2, 11, 15, 2, 198, 19, 16, 4, 25, 29, 22, 39, 13, 53,
3, 53, 3, 26, 48, 56, 63, 85, 4, 74, 137, 30, 44, 16, 11, 139, 38, 20, 33,
116, 30, 24, 14, 29, 46, 32, 3, 39, 85, 20, 41, 2, 24, 5, 13, 57, 15, 78, 65,
50, 22, 6, 20, 95, 83, 23, 56, 1, 5, 7, 22, 19, 22, 52, 4, 5, 1, 168, 6, 38,
34, 3, 15, 54, 59, 80, 26, 43, 10, 159, 15, 3, 80, 4, 44, 59, 202, 66, 5, 37,
49, 51, 9, 1, 65, 68, 32, 2, 7, 19, 16, 2, 100, 77, 12, 52, 115, 66, 16, 22,
30, 105, 63, 87, 7, 62, 32, 10, 80, 1, 19, 7, 32, 11, 24, 83, 31, 62, 39, 3,
2, 22, 66, 2, 100, 125, 36, 21, 4, 2, 136, 40, 51, 24, 2, 62, 42, 17, 49, 23,
115, 45, 17, 12, 8, 47, 40, 31, 24, 12, 78, 58, 18, 90, 24, 130, 30, 2, 14,
58, 9, 14, 41, 34, 209, 67, 25, 20, 2, 88, 5, 38, 14, 36, 30, 38, 14, 56,
100, 6, 2, 160, 18, 32, 34, 8, 20, 92, 14, 73, 36, 54, 34, 36, 9, 50, 23, 74,
37, 46, 148, 33, 49, 10, 105, 4, 16, 21, 156, 14, 20, 33, 22, 13, 42, 2, 69,
12, 9, 35, 65, 22, 13, 43, 44, 2, 27]
有保底
保底機制:
(1)先隨便抽，機率均等，並記錄累積未中數量
(2)當累積未中數量達到30 黑妍機率變45%
31 50%
32 55%
...
39 90%
大於等於40 95%
(3)無論於均等機率或是提升機率時抽中黑妍，累積未中數量重置
一樣抽10000張
python code
http://survivor.ntu.edu.tw/yobaodi.py
黑妍數量: 455
10000抽之中中黑妍的編號
[13, 17, 48, 79, 110, 119, 125, 156, 188, 193, 200, 226, 257, 288, 319, 323,
354, 363, 386, 417, 448, 474, 486, 498, 529, 559, 590, 621, 652, 683, 711,
742, 772, 795, 827, 844, 875, 888, 895, 900, 931, 948, 979, 1005, 1036, 1067,
1098, 1129, 1130, 1132, 1163, 1168, 1197, 1200, 1205, 1236, 1249, 1256, 1286,
1318, 1349, 1365, 1386, 1417, 1418, 1424, 1440, 1456, 1470, 1501, 1512, 1525,
1553, 1584, 1602, 1616, 1647, 1659, 1679, 1710, 1719, 1750, 1752, 1783, 1803,
1828, 1834, 1849, 1880, 1911, 1927, 1958, 1990, 2022, 2053, 2085, 2104, 2115,
2116, 2118, 2146, 2177, 2208, 2239, 2270, 2301, 2318, 2349, 2380, 2411, 2415,
2422, 2429, 2435, 2466, 2487, 2499, 2529, 2543, 2549, 2554, 2557, 2582, 2613,
2644, 2675, 2686, 2717, 2733, 2764, 2795, 2826, 2857, 2880, 2912, 2913, 2944,
2975, 3006, 3037, 3040, 3050, 3061, 3093, 3122, 3127, 3159, 3176, 3208, 3239,
3243, 3274, 3304, 3335, 3366, 3381, 3408, 3409, 3413, 3436, 3454, 3485, 3510,
3541, 3554, 3583, 3614, 3645, 3676, 3703, 3728, 3759, 3790, 3822, 3828, 3859,
3861, 3874, 3905, 3936, 3951, 3968, 3999, 4008, 4024, 4055, 4056, 4088, 4119,
4150, 4172, 4203, 4234, 4235, 4252, 4283, 4314, 4345, 4346, 4366, 4397, 4428,
4432, 4463, 4478, 4509, 4526, 4551, 4575, 4598, 4607, 4628, 4650, 4681, 4712,
4725, 4747, 4778, 4809, 4840, 4871, 4897, 4928, 4930, 4961, 4992, 5023, 5048,
5071, 5077, 5108, 5112, 5120, 5128, 5159, 5178, 5209, 5241, 5242, 5273, 5277,
5278, 5304, 5336, 5347, 5378, 5400, 5431, 5462, 5493, 5524, 5555, 5587, 5601,
5632, 5663, 5694, 5725, 5736, 5749, 5780, 5799, 5819, 5830, 5861, 5864, 5878,
5909, 5928, 5954, 5985, 5991, 6014, 6039, 6070, 6075, 6079, 6110, 6129, 6160,
6191, 6204, 6217, 6248, 6267, 6294, 6325, 6340, 6364, 6377, 6400, 6431, 6462,
6473, 6504, 6507, 6523, 6554, 6574, 6605, 6606, 6637, 6668, 6678, 6709, 6740,
6750, 6753, 6755, 6786, 6817, 6828, 6839, 6870, 6901, 6932, 6963, 6964, 6991,
7022, 7053, 7084, 7096, 7120, 7151, 7182, 7194, 7211, 7220, 7239, 7270, 7298,
7329, 7360, 7391, 7422, 7453, 7465, 7493, 7521, 7552, 7563, 7568, 7599, 7610,
7641, 7663, 7693, 7724, 7755, 7780, 7811, 7842, 7873, 7904, 7921, 7953, 7984,
8010, 8034, 8044, 8049, 8080, 8111, 8116, 8117, 8120, 8151, 8153, 8184, 8215,
8216, 8223, 8254, 8271, 8302, 8303, 8314, 8343, 8374, 8405, 8436, 8468, 8491,
8522, 8544, 8575, 8579, 8593, 8625, 8634, 8650, 8661, 8662, 8693, 8724, 8751,
8774, 8805, 8825, 8856, 8874, 8899, 8905, 8936, 8947, 8960, 8963, 8980, 8989,
9020, 9051, 9082, 9113, 9134, 9136, 9169, 9176, 9197, 9228, 9234, 9260, 9291,
9322, 9353, 9357, 9358, 9389, 9420, 9421, 9439, 9470, 9501, 9532, 9558, 9589,
9616, 9641, 9644, 9676, 9707, 9739, 9770, 9801, 9832, 9851, 9852, 9883, 9895,
9898, 9929, 9950, 9956, 9961, 9992]
兩次抽到黑妍之間的張數
[4, 31, 31, 31, 9, 6, 31, 32, 5, 7, 26, 31, 31, 31, 4, 31, 9, 23, 31, 31, 26,
12, 12, 31, 30, 31, 31, 31, 31, 28, 31, 30, 23, 32, 17, 31, 13, 7, 5, 31, 17,
31, 26, 31, 31, 31, 31, 1, 2, 31, 5, 29, 3, 5, 31, 13, 7, 30, 32, 31, 16, 21,
31, 1, 6, 16, 16, 14, 31, 11, 13, 28, 31, 18, 14, 31, 12, 20, 31, 9, 31, 2,
31, 20, 25, 6, 15, 31, 31, 16, 31, 32, 32, 31, 32, 19, 11, 1, 2, 28, 31, 31,
31, 31, 31, 17, 31, 31, 31, 4, 7, 7, 6, 31, 21, 12, 30, 14, 6, 5, 3, 25, 31,
31, 31, 11, 31, 16, 31, 31, 31, 31, 23, 32, 1, 31, 31, 31, 31, 3, 10, 11, 32,
29, 5, 32, 17, 32, 31, 4, 31, 30, 31, 31, 15, 27, 1, 4, 23, 18, 31, 25, 31,
13, 29, 31, 31, 31, 27, 25, 31, 31, 32, 6, 31, 2, 13, 31, 31, 15, 17, 31, 9,
16, 31, 1, 32, 31, 31, 22, 31, 31, 1, 17, 31, 31, 31, 1, 20, 31, 31, 4, 31,
15, 31, 17, 25, 24, 23, 9, 21, 22, 31, 31, 13, 22, 31, 31, 31, 31, 26, 31, 2,
31, 31, 31, 25, 23, 6, 31, 4, 8, 8, 31, 19, 31, 32, 1, 31, 4, 1, 26, 32, 11,
31, 22, 31, 31, 31, 31, 31, 32, 14, 31, 31, 31, 31, 11, 13, 31, 19, 20, 11,
31, 3, 14, 31, 19, 26, 31, 6, 23, 25, 31, 5, 4, 31, 19, 31, 31, 13, 13, 31,
19, 27, 31, 15, 24, 13, 23, 31, 31, 11, 31, 3, 16, 31, 20, 31, 1, 31, 31, 10,
31, 31, 10, 3, 2, 31, 31, 11, 11, 31, 31, 31, 31, 1, 27, 31, 31, 31, 12, 24,
31, 31, 12, 17, 9, 19, 31, 28, 31, 31, 31, 31, 31, 12, 28, 28, 31, 11, 5, 31,
11, 31, 22, 30, 31, 31, 25, 31, 31, 31, 31, 17, 32, 31, 26, 24, 10, 5, 31,
31, 5, 1, 3, 31, 2, 31, 31, 1, 7, 31, 17, 31, 1, 11, 29, 31, 31, 31, 32, 23,
31, 22, 31, 4, 14, 32, 9, 16, 11, 1, 31, 31, 27, 23, 31, 20, 31, 18, 25, 6,
31, 11, 13, 3, 17, 9, 31, 31, 31, 31, 21, 2, 33, 7, 21, 31, 6, 26, 31, 31,
31, 4, 1, 31, 31, 1, 18, 31, 31, 31, 26, 31, 27, 25, 3, 32, 31, 32, 31, 31,
31, 19, 1, 31, 12, 3, 31, 21, 6, 5, 31]
當然萬一有保底，大家也不知道MH設定的機制，
所以小弟姑且隨意提供一種。
大家可以隨意改改機制或多跑幾次實驗，
看看能不能逼近MH的玩法XD
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 140.112.3.74
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/ToS/M.1468913016.A.C03.html
→ t13thbc: 滿滿的都是數字眼睛都花了 07/19 15:24
→ quick511413: 請...請給我懶人包 好花 07/19 15:24
※ 編輯: BahasaMelayu (140.112.3.74), 07/19/2016 15:26:58
推 encoreg10917: 快推，不然會被説看不懂，其實我真的看不懂 07/19 15:26
→ Bewho: 先給箭頭 07/19 15:26
→ bookticket: 第五行的敘述有點問題, 即使是假設沒有保底, 但目前 07/19 15:26
→ bookticket: 的樣本資料看來, 新妍希卡的機率並不是81取2, 是更高 07/19 15:27
→ bookticket: 的3.x% 07/19 15:27
推 pm2001: 光給數據很難看出結論 至少用個圖表統計 07/19 15:28
推 absgpc: 快推，不然人家會知道我們看不懂！！ 07/19 15:28
推 s93184s: 看不懂 懶人包呢? 07/19 15:29
推 kennyke: 我推！ 07/19 15:31
===============================================
推 luke2: 看"兩次抽到黑妍之間的張數" 前提沒保底很明顯跟統計的數據 07/19 15:32
→ luke2: 差很多 因此結論是有保底 而且保底的算法是照原PO寫的那樣 07/19 15:33
→ luke2: 遞增的機率 結論就是有保底的意思 07/19 15:33
結論在這裡
===============================================
→ yap5678: 先推 好猛啊 07/19 15:33
推 GLPLy: 講!重!點! 07/19 15:35
※ 編輯: BahasaMelayu (140.112.3.74), 07/19/2016 15:36:47
→ achero: 依我玩艦娘的經驗統計才2%的東西也會天天有過百場的人崩 07/19 15:38
→ achero: 潰，能沒人超過40次還沒保底那是奇跡 07/19 15:38
推 luke2: 喂 你才是原PO好嗎XDDDDDDDD 07/19 15:41
推 NEWDEED: 看不懂還是推了 07/19 15:41
→ wlkb0000: 看統計數字感覺是預設機率比2/81更低，後面提升更多 07/19 15:42
推 cjleetw: 推個，跟爐石40包一定有一張傳說差不多意思... 07/19 15:42
→ wlkb0000: 尤其是幾乎沒有人連兩張黑金，但統計下來機率高達3%多 07/19 15:43
→ wlkb0000: 其他卡更低的機率都在連發了XD 07/19 15:43
推 omyg0d2007: 推, 雖然看不懂不過謝謝結論和跑程式XD 07/19 15:43
→ wlkb0000: 或者說不要侷限於連兩張，連續五張或十張以內黑金的次數 07/19 15:46
→ wlkb0000: 都比其他那些1% 2%的卡還低 07/19 15:46
→ wlkb0000: ^出現兩張 07/19 15:47
→ Bewho: 不管辣，保底只是都市傳說，這都是統計數據的正常呈現zzz 07/19 15:52
→ Bewho: 我先幫樓下發言 07/19 15:52
→ everemember: 我連發光古希ww 07/19 15:55
推 NovaDust: 有保底 那就是看個人願不願意花150石買一張卡 或是繼續 07/19 15:56
→ NovaDust: 用以小搏大的心態去抽 07/19 15:56
→ everemember: 看起來抽超雷ww 07/19 15:56
→ NovaDust: 150石也只是是個大概而以 07/19 15:57
推 wanba5566: 我最後一次看這個公式已經是一年前寫研究報告的時候了 07/19 15:58
→ wanba5566: 嗚嗚頭好痛啊 07/19 15:58
推 magiclunar: 我相信機率是遞增 但遞增曲線應該不是線性 07/19 15:58
推 gpmgdd: 花了6000 ,抽到一火一水剩100顆石頭 07/19 15:59
→ gpmgdd: 應該有保底 07/19 15:59
→ gpmgdd: 只是付出的代價很大 07/19 16:00
→ gpmgdd: 之前使魔，古希，省下來沒抽，現在一次吐出來 07/19 16:01
推 NovaDust: 真的是看自己要不要花那個錢 07/19 16:07
推 tyliu: 直接計算版上統計機率來看，3.78%的機率中黑金，不保底的情 07/19 16:19
→ tyliu: 況下，一直抽到30~39抽中一張的機率是10.46%，29抽以內中的 07/19 16:19
→ tyliu: 機率是67.29%，40抽以後中的機率是22.25%。跟版上統計一比 07/19 16:19
→ tyliu: ，答案應該明顯了吧 07/19 16:19
推 xcoldx: 這次MH真的是賺翻了 下次一定複製這模式 07/19 16:35
推 magiclunar: 今天他在GOOGLE PLAY的排行榜已經衝到第4了耶 平常 07/19 16:39
→ magiclunar: 都30上下 07/19 16:39
→ aoiaoi: 這模式真的還不錯阿 35抽 大概就很穩了 連無課都能考慮存 07/19 16:43
→ xcoldx: 這模式每次都要掏個至少3600耶 有很好嗎 07/19 16:48
推 Bewho: 我比較喜歡一般那種一次出五張，然後單日加倍的 07/19 16:49
推 kennyke: apk不到3000有190顆，有興趣入坑可考慮 07/19 17:01
推 Sephiroth: 不是剛好3000買190顆嗎 07/19 17:02
推 metalbomb: 嗯嗯，我也是這樣想的! 07/19 17:07
推 abellea85209: 這篇正解了 07/19 17:09
推 cwubai: 原來mycard價錢也調整了@@，那改用mycard比較便宜一點 07/19 17:16
→ StevenZ: 看來明年新年中國神有可能比照這模式了？ 07/19 17:16
推 shindouhika: 跟我昨天跑的數值差不多 07/19 17:19
→ ebv: 完全沒抽~反正我光古蒼蠅沒半隻也是撐到現在 不想花3000抽1隻 07/19 17:23
推 ray30409: 看推文才知道mycard也降價了，感謝分享 07/19 17:25
推 kennyke: 有很多管道可買到9.x折，例如1x3的app，大概2800，190顆 07/19 17:41
推 john790710: 有沒有人連續三張妍希都同一張?已經兩張水了，怕又重 07/19 17:56
→ john790710: 復，考慮要不要繼續拼 07/19 17:56
推 XiaoMaple: 我也沒有光古蒼蠅 幫哭哭 07/19 18:22
→ hownever: 蒼蠅我們工會反而很多人抽到 07/19 18:31
→ marginal5566: 3000抽一隻 算了吧 07/19 18:35
→ bingreen: 看不懂推 07/19 19:19
→ pippen2002: 有一堆my card...卻不會用APK... 07/19 19:22
推 everemember: John 我也是兩張水在掙扎要不要拼 07/19 19:25
→ qwe20: 皮朋怎麼常常賣萌 07/19 19:41
推 encoreg10917: 我們家這邊 mycard 有 95 折 ㄎd 07/19 19:50