作者wl00669773 (Jerry shou)
看板Warfare
標題Re: [問題] 二戰德軍沒攻下列寧格勒是不能還是不為
時間Sun Feb 13 10:04:12 2022
翻了一下The Naval War in the Baltic 1939–1945一書
作者有提到幾個點
1.芬蘭不想打列寧格勒
The Finnish forces had a superiority of two to one and they were able to
advance, while the Soviet forces were on a fast and chaotic retreat. The
German command wanted the Finnish forces to move quickly towards Leningrad,
so that they could meet the German forces as they advanced towards the city
from the south and west. Mannerheim declined. The Finnish government had no
desire to participate in an attack on Leningrad, and Finland also lacked the
necessary dive-bombers and heavy artillery to carry out such an operation. If
Finland had agreed, Leningrad would undoubtedly have fallen around the middle
of September.
德國指揮部希望芬蘭迅速向列寧格勒發起進攻，以同時夾擊該城市，但是Mannerheim(芬蘭總司令)拒絕，芬蘭無意參與，同時也缺乏必要的俯衝轟炸機及重型火炮來執行這樣的行動。
作者認為，如果芬蘭同意，列寧格勒會在9月中旬左右淪陷。
Mannerheim knew that Finland’s fate would be sealed if Germany lost the war
and he had helped them take Leningrad. At the time around the American entry
into the Second World War, diplomatic pressure, among other things, was put
on Finland by the United States, with the message that if Finland actively
participated in the capture of Leningrad or of the railway line between
Murmansk and Leningrad, then Finnish wishes would not be taken into account
after the war. Unlike Great Britain, the United States did not declare war on
Finland.
Mannerheim知道，如果芬蘭攻擊列寧格勒，就坐實了德國支持者的角色，一旦德國戰敗，芬蘭就慘了，特別是美國在不斷對芬蘭施加外交壓力。
(芬蘭:美國，怕。)
2.蘇聯波羅的海艦隊的火炮支援貫穿整個列寧格勒圍城戰，沒有停過。
3.隨著莫斯科的戰鬥陷入膠著，部分部隊被調離列寧格勒戰場。包括德國空軍的VIII. Fliegerkorps
(事實上我一直認為德國空軍比起德國陸軍數量更不足以支撐東線戰場的需求，特別是空軍長時間承受西面盟軍很巨大的空中壓力，人手根本不夠，但是還沒有深入研究過)
作者在書中也非常重視、一直提及德國空中優勢持續弱化的問題。
The Baltic Fleet air force had been gradually expanded. The aircraft were,
technologically speaking, not very sophisticated, and the pilots were not as
skilled as their German counterparts, but German air superiority was
gradually reduced in line with the German command being in need of offensive
and defensive aircraft on the other sections of the front. The air defences
in Leningrad had already in 1941 subjected the Luftwaffe to unacceptably high
losses.
4.德國東線戰場北部的軍事行動就算沒有列寧格勒，也持續有由海上進行補給，甚至整個北半部戰場的燃料供應幾乎是由瑞典油輪運輸來的。
Fuel supplies to the northern half of the Eastern Front were almost
exclusively transported by Swedish tankers – the Swedish government had
given its tacit approval to this traffic. The shipowners did incredibly well
out of it, and payment often came in oil, petrol and coal. There was also an
opportunity here to increase revenue, but the shipping transports cost the
lives of many Swedish sailors. Germany paid war reparations if the ships were
sunk because of acts of war; the standard marine insurance was no longer
valid, but the Germans were good payers, solely because of their need for
shipping tonnage.
我認為在整體戰事來看，拿下通往內陸的鐵路以使資源能從波羅的海送往莫斯科等內陸戰場應該比列寧格勒的後勤價值要來的高，暴風行動的核心補給問題還是蘇聯內陸爛爆的地形。
列寧格勒的核心價值應該在蘇聯波羅的海艦隊的完全消滅，不過單論此時對補給的影響，儘管波羅的海的海上運輸時而受到蘇聯潛艇的攻擊，但是數量不多，1942年，蘇聯潛艇約擊沉45,000頓，共18艘船。
水面艦隊基本上被水雷關廁所，最大的作用就是支援圍城作戰。
感覺最好還是別圍列寧格勒，有海軍支持的城市本來就比較難啃，德國又不是沒有塔林來運送物資，只是路還是太爛阿。
總的來說將部隊集中至更重要的戰場對於大局我想會更有效益。
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※ 編輯: wl00669773 (220.142.18.144 臺灣), 02/13/2022 10:18:54
※ 編輯: wl00669773 (220.142.18.144 臺灣), 02/13/2022 10:24:51
推 PAULDAVID: 借串問個文章 以前本版有篇文說蘇聯某將領1941時是某大 02/13 17:55
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→ PAULDAVID: 了他自帶主力從另一處突圍 而德軍並不相信副將的寡兵是 02/13 17:55
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→ PAULDAVID: 後來副將成長為蘇軍名將 02/13 17:56
→ sheep531531: 樓上講的應該是巴格拉米揚，後來變元帥 02/13 19:55
推 chungrew: 對 02/13 20:09
推 PAULDAVID: 找到了 是他沒錯 #13GafUlA 騙他佯攻的老闆是基爾波諾 02/14 00:01
→ PAULDAVID: 斯 有才 但怎麼說 不太厚道 (歪串) 02/14 00:01
→ saltlake: 後來這位幸運元帥有個親戚，叫做威利．楊。他吸取前人 02/14 00:54
→ saltlake: 教訓，也在一次命運的包圍中成功突圍。被譽為魔術師．楊 02/14 00:54
推 fetoyeh: 威利楊XDDD 02/14 01:32
推 dickenst35: 艾爾法西爾逃亡XD 02/14 10:23
推 XperiaArcS: 還因此結識了後來的妻子 02/14 13:55
推 PAULDAVID: 看來戰前雙方都不知道對方真實底細甚至不知自己極限在 02/14 15:53
→ PAULDAVID: 哪 馬後炮來說德國機會在於精神方面打垮蘇聯政府 而後 02/14 15:53
→ PAULDAVID: 者士氣潰了卻奇蹟地沒崩 接著前者的極限就被凸顯出來了 02/14 15:53
→ wl00669773: 誰知道呢，搞不好租借法案被卡住再拖個一年蘇聯就真 02/14 17:27
→ wl00669773: 的崩了也說不定 02/14 17:27
推 chungrew: 蘇聯接受英美的幫助的量非常大 02/15 00:00
→ chungrew: 大到甚至超過蘇聯本身的生產量 02/15 00:01
→ chungrew: 如果蘇聯沒有能接受英美的援助 02/15 00:01
→ chungrew: 蘇聯跟已經征服大半個歐洲的德國單挑 02/15 00:01
→ chungrew: 誰贏誰輸不好說 02/15 00:02
→ chungrew: 過往蘇聯的宣傳太過誇大蘇聯的精神意志力量 02/15 00:02
→ chungrew: 他們沒有強調一個事實：蘇聯接受的援助更多 02/15 00:03
推 hedgehogs: 不知道俄羅斯的歷史課本有沒有把歐美援助寫進去 02/15 00:57
推 tomhawkreal: 蘇聯沒有接受援助 東線可能形成僵局 於是開始和談... 02/15 05:52
推 PAULDAVID: 同意樓上 不過拖越長對納粹越不利 所以還是算蘇方得利? 02/15 07:53
推 PeterHenson: 其實是打定英美勢必會對德國開戰吧 02/15 13:43
→ saltlake: 樓上描述的策略和當年老蔣的想法一樣 02/15 21:42
→ kuma660224: 英國是本來就已經開戰了 不一樣 02/16 01:56
→ kuma660224: 援助蘇聯是英國本來就必然會做的事 02/16 01:57
→ kuma660224: 除非英國打算先向德國求和 02/16 01:59
→ kuma660224: 德蘇突然開戰 英國簡直像中樂透 02/16 02:00
→ kuma660224: 絕對會希望德蘇打得越拼命越好 02/16 02:00
→ cht1234: 樓上推文有人錯亂了吧，英國拿到的美援助比蘇聯多好幾倍 02/16 13:54
推 chungrew: 精確的說，我是說「蘇聯接受英美援助的總量」，在部分 02/16 17:51
→ chungrew: 項目上多於「蘇聯國內的生產量」 02/16 17:51
→ chungrew: 是跟蘇聯自己的生產能力比較，不是跟國外比 02/16 17:52
推 chungrew: 以卡車為例，蘇聯把產能都拿去生產坦克，結果蘇聯生產 02/16 17:54
→ chungrew: 的卡車總量甚至比不上美援卡車量 02/16 17:54
推 chungrew: 查查租借法案，美國提供蘇聯35.6萬輛卡車 02/16 17:57
→ kuma660224: 那影響主要是逆推反攻能力 02/16 18:46
→ kuma660224: 離開本土後連軌道都不一樣 卡車更重要 02/16 18:47
→ kuma660224: 德國攻勢時要同時生產大量運輸載具 02/16 18:47
→ kuma660224: 後期戰線往本土退後守勢 才能減少卡車 02/16 18:48
→ kuma660224: 加碼戰甲車拼產能. 02/16 18:48
→ kuma660224: 沒有美援 蘇聯每次逆推要集氣時間需更久 02/16 18:49
→ kuma660224: 他人力物力鋼鐵石油還是優勢 02/16 18:49
→ kuma660224: 但反推進度應會大幅延後甚至不進柏林 02/16 18:50
推 ggghalo2: 國外援助我記得以前版上的討論結果是剛開戰至1942年的 02/16 21:06
→ ggghalo2: 補給最重要 02/16 21:06