[討論] 大家真的要小心了

作者antiyahoo (支那人沒有一個是無辜的)

看板medstudent

標題[討論] 大家真的要小心了

時間Fri Jan 24 22:21:20 2020

剛剛看到一篇paper 以目前情況看恐怕將成為世界瘟疫 PDF Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/vi ew Archive：https://archive.is/XCERo 主要總結： We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection to be s ignificantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indic ating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for i nfections to stop increasing.? We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identi fied , indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also refl ecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authoriti es in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases i n Wuhan and other areas. If no change in control or transmission happens,When we expect further outbre aks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. in 14 days’ tim e (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shangh ai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2 020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of impor ting infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, an d South Korea. Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikel y to be effective in halting transmission across China ; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be red uced by 24.9% on 4 February 希望蔡政府要果斷一點…… -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 101.12.29.16 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/medstudent/M.1579875684.A.F83.html ※ 編輯: antiyahoo (101.12.29.16 臺灣), 01/24/2020 22:22:54 ※ 編輯: antiyahoo (101.12.29.16 臺灣), 01/24/2020 22:24:05

推 jeff52: 扭扭捏捏，要禁不禁的，沒有要選舉了，能不能果斷一點？ 01/24 22:28

→ jeff52: 好像看不到pdf. 01/24 22:29

推 hyperkalemia: 感染力無庸置疑一定散播開的，看看那精美的武漢行程 01/24 22:30

→ hyperkalemia: ，他們那一團還沒禁止隔離呢~現在只能祈禱嚴重度不 01/24 22:30

→ hyperkalemia: 會太高 01/24 22:30

推 jai166: 太強硬又有550萬人要亂了 01/24 22:42

推 herced: 正要寫XDD 01/24 22:59

→ herced: http://bit.ly/2RKNx4d 手動分流 01/24 23:03

→ herced: 另外這不算peer review過的paper，偏像是他們自己做的預測 01/24 23:05

推 mangogreen17: https://reurl.cc/W4naKL 01/24 23:12

→ mangogreen17: 2019-nCoV感染臨床處置.pdf 01/24 23:13

→ antiyahoo: https://i.imgur.com/MfZCGGI.jpg 01/24 23:30