Re: [問題] 各號輪值應有表現???

[Sunrise2516 (miss u)]

※ 引述《q224222 (風流劍)》之銘言：
: 想請問一下MLB各號先發輪值應有表現為何???
: 請問有什麼量化的數據嗎?
: 因為常看到有人說"這個新秀未來有長成3號先發的淺力"...等類似的說法
: 網路上找好久又找不到
: 希望有人能解答.先謝謝了thx~
------------------拾人牙慧，以前備份的文章，你要的部分在文章下半段---------------------------------


 作者  eaquson (美月美月)                                                     
 標題  [翻譯] 球探問答知識+  Scouting FAQ                                     
 時間  Sat May 10 14:30:58 2008                                               
───────────────────────────────────────

http://www.baseballexaminer.com/FAQs/scouting_faq.htm

Scouting FAQ

球探問答知識+


How large a role does scouting actually play in baseball?

球探在棒球中到底扮演多重大的角色呢?

Scouting plays a larger role in baseball than it does any other sport. Sure,
the NBA, NFL and NHL use advance scouts for teams they will soon play and
they also scout amateur players for the upcoming draft. Baseball does both as
well but still relies more heavily on scouts than the other sports,
especially the NFL and NBA.

跟其他運動比起來，球探在棒球中扮演更大的角色。在NBA、NFL與NHL，球員即將進入的
球隊使用advaced scouts，也有因應即將來到的選秀而以業餘球員為對象的球探。
職業棒球在這兩方面都做的一樣好，但是依然比其他運動更依靠球探，尤其是與NFL和NBA
相比。
advanced scouts:
職業體系各隊伍負責觀察其他隊伍球員表現，提供對戰情報或所需交易資料的球探。

The other sports use game film for a great deal of the advance scouting. For
amateur scouting, the NFL and NBA rely heavily on pre-draft combines to
analyze prospective draftees. Baseball sends its scouts out in the field much
more extensively.

其他的運動在advance scouting大量使用比賽影片。在業餘球員的球探中，NFL與NBA
十分倚重選秀前每年定期合併舉辦的測試來分析有未來的新秀。職業棒球體系更廣汎地把
球探送到各地。

scouting combine:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_Combine

Baseball’s amateur scouts are in the field enough to draft up to 50 rounds
of talent (up to 1,500 players). The NFL uses seven rounds. The NBA uses two.
Both the NFL and NBA also have a much more highly profiled feeder system in
the college ranks. Baseball has to work harder to go out and find the talent
consisting of collegians, high schoolers, junior college players as well as
several foreign-born players in countries where English is not the native
tongue.

職業棒球針對業餘體系的球探，其在各地調查的成果使他們足以進行高達50輪的選秀。
(總計1500名球員)。 NFL只有七輪，NBA只有兩輪。NFL與NBA兩者都在大學排名有高度
詳盡的資料提供體系。職業棒球必須更努力去各地尋找有天份的大專生，高中生，二專生
選手，以及一些在非英語國家出生的選手。


Baseball also has 180 rosters of minor league teams to consider for future
transactions. With all the minor league teams to scout and all the amateur
players to research, baseball definitely relies more on its scouts than the
other sports.

MLB每個球隊在小聯盟也有180個active roster名額以供未來交易之用。
有所有的小聯盟隊伍供球探觀察以及所有的業餘球員讓他們研究，在棒球中確實比其他
運動更依靠球探。

What does a scout look for?

球探找的是什麼人呢?

A scout is always looking for a potential major leaguer. And it’s all based
on projection. Very rarely will a scout ever see a player who is already
major league caliber. He has to see the potential of a player and do his best
to forecast the future. Scouts look through the current strengths and
weaknesses of a player and examine whether the tools are there to allow him
to make an impact at the major league level.

一個球探總是在尋找具MLB潛力的球員。而這一切都靠估計。發現一個馬上能打大聯
盟的球員是很稀有的事情。他必須看球員的潛力，儘其所能去預測未來。球探要能看出球
員現在的優缺點，檢視他有哪一個tool讓他可以在大聯盟發揮影響力。


What are these “tools” you speak of?

你說的"tool"是什麼呢?

The tools are primarily in reference to position players. A scout will rate a
player’s skill level for each of the five tools: hitting, power, fielding,
arm strength and speed.

tool主要是作為各守備位置球員的參考。一個球探會依球員在5項tool上的技能程度
打分數: hitting, power, fielding, 臂力與速度

Which of the five tools is considered most important?

這五項tool哪一個最重要呢?


Well, it may depend on the primary position of a player. But for the most
part, the first thing about a position player we discuss is his ability or
inability to hit the ball. Scouts judge a player’s swing looking for details
including, but not limited to, bat speed, a level swing, full arm extension
and follow-through.

唔，這要看球員主要的守備位置。但大部分來說，關於一個守備位置上的球員我們首先
討論的是他是否有擊球的良好能力。球探由球員的揮棒中尋找幾個細節，這包含但不限
制於揮棒速度，level swing，手臂的完全伸展以及擊球後的完成動作。

關於level swing: http://www.baseballtips.com/print/level1.html




The swing will often show its holes by the mechanics of the player’s body. A
scout looks for what the feet are doing, what the hips are doing, what the
shoulders are doing and several other biomechanical factors. A player with a
“good bat” will make consistently good contact with the ball and the ball
should bounce off the bat with some authority when struck.


揮棒常會暴露出選手身體機制的缺陷。一個球探在球員揮棒時看腳，屁屁，肩膀以及幾個
其他生物力學的因素。一個有良好擊球的打者會一致地與球良好地接觸，當擊球時球
會以一定程度的保證飛離棒子。

Isn’t power part of hitting? Why is it considered a different tool?

power不是hitting的一部分嗎?為什麼被視為不同的tool?

Power is part of hitting, but it’s a different aspect of it. Hitting as a
tool judges a player’s ability to put the ball sharply in play. Power as a
tool is the ability to hit the ball high and far.

power是hitting的一部份，但那是hitting的另外一部份。hitting作為一種特殊能力可
以判斷出球員把球犀利地打進場的能力。power為一種特殊能力則是把球打得又高又遠的
能力。

Consider power a supplemental tool to hitting. Without a good hitting
approach, power will be much more difficult to realize. A good hitter who
lacks power will find it reasonably easier to later add power than will a
player with good power-potential lacking a “good bat” develop into a
well-rounded hitter. I know that was a complicated statement, so after you
spend a moment to further examine it more closely, consider the following
simplified version: power will feed off the hitting, not vice versa.

power是hitting的補充工具。沒有好的hitting方法，power會很難實現。一個缺乏power
的良好擊球打者，在後來長出power的可能性，要比一個有power潛力但缺乏"良好揮擊"
的打者，發展成健全的打者來的容易。我知道這樣說有點複雜，所以在你花點時間
進一步檢視之前，考慮一下底下的簡化說法: power對hitting有好處，反之不然。

A good hitter will, with experience, eventually show some power by adding a
loft to his swing and making other subtle adjustments. That is partly why
power is typically the last of the five tools to develop. Power is also late
to develop because, though young players may already have a good swing,
bodies aren’t fully matured until the early-to-mid 20s. A player at age 18,
19 or 20 is not nearly as strong and filled-out as he will be by age 24, 25
and on. And scouts are asked to predict how strong a boy is expected to be
when he becomes a man. Not easy!

一個好的打者會隨著經驗的增加，以提高擊球高度或其他細微的調整最終展現出一些power
。這是為什麼power一般來說是五項tool中最後發展的一部份原因。power較晚發展的另一
個原因是，雖然年輕選手可能已經有好的揮棒，直到他大約接近25歲之前身體
並沒有完全地成熟與豐滿。一個18、19或20歲的球員並不向他24、25歲時那樣地強壯與
豐滿。而球探被要求能夠預測一個男孩當他長成成人的時候會有多強壯。不容易!


What about fielding?

那fielding呢?

What does a scout look for in evaluating defense?

球探看什麼來為fielding打分數?


Evaluating defense is certainly position specific. But a scout looks deeper
than a player’s success at a certain position. He examines the hands, the
footwork, the mental capacities of the player. Sometimes the scout
determines, based on the player’s skills, that the best position for him isn
’t at all the one he’s currently playing.

評估防守能力的方式當然會隨著不同位置而改變。但是球探不只觀察球員在這某個位置的
成功，他檢查手的動作、腳步的移位與心理上的負荷力。有時候球探依據球員的技能所
判定最適合他的守備位置並不總是他正在守的位置。


How do we know what position is best for a player?

我們怎麼知道哪一個位置對一位球員最好?

Well, if the player is lefthanded, he’s immediately relegated to the
outfield or first base. So, among righthanders, the better skilled he is with
the glove the more likely he will be tried as an infielder.

唔，如果他是左撇子，他就馬上被送到外野或一壘。所以，對右撇子來說，他的防守愈好
就愈可能試著去擔任內野手。

Among the infield positions, shortstop and second base require the most
range. Turning a double play also necessitates sure hands and agile footwork
around the bag. Third base does not require the same kind of range but rather
quickness (in terms of reaction time) and agility must be present. If a
player does not have good, soft hands he’ll likely end up in the outfield.

在內野手當中，游擊與二壘需要最大的range。製造雙殺也需要穩健的雙手與在壘包附近
敏捷的移位。三壘手不需要這麼大的range，但是要快一點(以反應時間來說)與表
現出敏捷。如果一個球員沒有一雙好的、柔軟的雙手，他比較可能最後會在外野。

The 4th tool, arm strength, also plays a significant role in determining a
player’s most appropriate position. An infielder with a strong arm will
likely play on the left side of the infield, shortstop or third base. The
strongest outfield arm is usually in rightfield. The weakest arms in the
infield and outfield will often be second base and leftfield, respectively.

第四項tool，臂力，也在決定一個球員最適當位置中佔有重要的角色。
有強健手臂的內野手比較可能在內野的左側，游擊或三壘。外野中手臂最強健的通常會在
右外野。內野與外野最弱的手臂通常分別是在二壘與左外野。

If arm strength is part of fielding, then why is it considered a tool of its
own?

如果臂力是fielding的一部份，那為什麼它是被獨立出來考慮的tool呢?

Well, as hitting and power are each tools of offensive skill, both fielding
and arm strength are defensive tools. Grading a player’s fielding
incorporates the hands, feet, positioning, reaction to ground balls or fly
balls, etc. A player’s arm is graded separately. He may be a good fielder
with a poor arm or be a poor fielder with a strong arm. The two tools are
distinct.

唔，就像hitting和power都是攻擊技能的特殊能力一樣，fielding和臂力都是防守上的
tool。給球員的fielding打分數包含了手，腳，站位，對滾地球或飛球的反應...等等。
一個球員的臂力是被分開計分的。他可能是臂力弱但fielding好或者臂力好但fielding弱
。這兩個tool是不同的。

A player with a strong arm will be able to throw on a tight line with some
zip on it. And it must be accurate. A weaker arm will need to throw with more
loft or arc. And whether it’s strong or not, if it’s not accurate it won’t
do you any good.

一個有強健手臂的球員可以在傳球時軌跡接近直線而發出呼嘯而過的聲音。而這必須很
精確。一個較差的手臂需要從比較高的位置以及比較大的揮臂弧度傳球。而不論是否強健
，如果傳的不精準則不會對球隊有任何好處。

Why isn’t speed considered part of defense?

為什麼速度不是防守上必須考慮的一部分呢?

It is! It’s also considered part of offense. It’s the only tool that plays
a factor both offensively and defensively.

是的!速度也被看成攻擊的一部份，這是唯一在攻擊和防守上都具有的因素。

On defense, speed impacts the range of a player. Speed is distinct from the
range aspect of fielding because a player may not have great speed yet know
how to position himself properly. A player with great speed doesn’t
necessarily read flyballs correctly and may make several misplays in the
field.

在防守上，速度影響一個球員的range。速度與fielding的range方面不同，因為一個球員
也許沒有很好的速度但是可能知道如何適當的站位。一個有很好速度的球員不一定能
正確地解讀飛球而可能在球場上有許多錯誤的守備動作。

Offensively, it can be used as a weapon on the basepaths. Or be a hindrance.
And don’t necessarily assume a player with speed is an automatic to be
successful in stealing bases. Several speedy players in the minors may get
caught stealing as often as they are safe. Reading a pitcher, taking a good
lead and getting a good jump are each factors to produce a quality base
stealer.

在攻擊上，速度可以做為用在跑壘線上的武器。速度也可能是一種障礙，擁有速度不代
表就能成功地盜壘。小聯盟裡一些有速度的跑者盜壘成功和失敗的次數一樣頻繁。解讀
投手的動作，在時機上的領先，好的起跑，都是製造有品質盜壘者的要素。

Though there have been several players who have better foot speed than Carlos
Beltran, nobody in the history of the game has been more successful in
stealing bases (over 89% success rate). He’s a very smart baserunner. Even
someone with the speed and athleticism of Deion Sanders stole 75% of his
attempts in his baseball-playing days, which is still very successful. But it
takes more than just speed to steal bases and Beltran proves that
basestealing is a skill beyond simply raw speed.

雖然已有幾位球員有著比Carlos Beltran更快的速度，但是歷史上沒有人在盜壘上比他
成功(成功機率超過89%)。他是很聰明的跑壘者。即使是像Deion Sanders那樣有速度與
運動細胞的球員也只在打球的時候有75%的成功率，但這依然是非常成功的。
但要盜壘只有速度是不能成功的，而Beltran證明了盜壘是超越單純只看速度的技能。

How does a scout grade each of the 5 tools?

球探怎麼為這5項tool計分呢?

Scouts use a 20-to-80 scale to grade each tool. 50 is considered major league
average with 20 at the lowest and 80 at elite status. Neither extreme is
given out very often. Some scouts may use a 2-to-8 scale, which is basically
the same, only that the 20-80 scale is used in increments of 5 (50, 55, 60,
etc.) rather than increments of 1 (5, 6, etc.).

球探以20到80分的尺度給每一項tool打分數。50分是mlb平均水準，20分是最低水準
而80分則是精英的境界。極端的分數很少出現。有的球探可能會使用2到8分，基本上是
一樣的尺度，差別在於20-80尺度的單位變化量是5而不是2-8尺度的1。


For a player to be considered a quality major league prospect, he should be
above average in at least two of the tools. A player who is above major
league average in only one tool will be considered one-dimensional. A player
who is average across the board with no “plus” tool will be deemed mediocre
and likely suited for a bench or utility role. If each tool is considered
potentially above major league average, he gets that prestigious label of
being a “5-tool prospect”.

一個球員要想被視為夠格上大聯盟的新秀，他應該在至少兩項tool上有超過平均水準
以上的表現。一位只在一項特殊能力有超過平均水準的選手會被視為單向度的(不夠全面)
。一個在五項tool都是平均水準沒有一項有個"+"的球員註定會成為平庸選手。
如果五項tool都高於MLB平均水準，他就能得到被標上"5-tool新秀"的榮譽。


Sample scouting grade for Player X:

一個樣本: 球員X各項tool的分數

Hitting:  60  (above average)

Power:  40  (below average)

Fielding:  55  (average-to-above average)

Arm:  50  (average)

Speed:  65 (well above average)



From these sample grades, I would assume this player is a leadoff hitter,
likely playing a middle-infield position or centerfield.

從這個樣本的各項分數，我會假設他是首棒打者，守備位置大約在內野中間或中外野。

How can you tell?

你是怎麼看的呢?


The first cue follows the old scouting adage: “Defense up the middle; power
in the corners.”  The lack of power from Player X lessens the chances he
will play a corner infield (1st base or 3rd base) or corner outfield
(leftfield or rightfield) position.

第一個線索來自古老的球探格言: "防守好的在中間，power好的在角落。"
缺乏power的球員 X 減少了他未來會在內野兩邊(一、三壘)或外野兩邊(左、右外野)
的機會。

Secondly, his speed will put him in centerfield unless there is a tremendous
defensive outfielder on the team who may push him to leftfield. If he is kept
in the infield, his average arm strength is the only tool that might force
him to the right side of second base if there is a stronger and better
defensive shortstop on the roster.

其次，他的速度會讓他在中外野除非隊上有一位守備極佳的中外野手而把他擠到左外野。
如果他被留在內野，他平均水準的臂力是唯一可能讓他因為隊上有個臂力與防守較好的游
擊手，而去守二壘的原因。

Finally, his hitting ability would allow him to hit in the top third of the
order. His speed and lack of power seal the deal as a leadoff hitter. If he
lacked speed and had power potential, he’d be a key run-producer, likely 3rd
or 4th.

最後，他的hitting能力可以讓他打前三棒。他的速度與缺乏power保證了他成為首棒打
者。如果他缺乏速度而有power的潛力，他可以成為關鍵的分數製造者，像第三或第四
棒。

So, which tools are better suited for each position?

所以，哪一個tool對各個位置最好呢?

You’d like to know, wouldn’t you? Baseball America has supplied a synopsis
of what a scout envisions about the ideal player for each position. He
observes the tools of a player and matches it with the profile of a position
that is most suitable. Here is how each position profiles, ranking the
importance of each tool from greatest to least:

你想知道，對吧? BA(Baseball America)提供球探展望各位置理想球員的診斷。
球探觀察球員的tool，和各位置的詳細資料作比對，找出最適當的位置。這裡是各位置
的資料，依各tool在該位置的重要性自高到低排名。

Catcher

 Fielding
 Arm
 Hitting
 Power
 Speed

First base

 Hitting
 Power
 Fielding
 Arm
 Speed

Second base

 Hitting
 Fielding
 Power
 Speed
 Arm

Third Base

 Hitting
 Power
 Fielding
 Arm
 Speed

Shortstop

 Fielding
 Arm
 Hitting
 Speed
 Power

Left field

 Hitting
 Power
 Fielding
 Arm
 Speed

Center field

 Fielding
 Hitting
 Speed
 Power
 Arm

Right field

 Hitting
 Power
 Arm
 Fielding
 Speed




Note that hitting is the most desired tool at each position except the
traditionally defensive-oriented positions of catcher, shortstop and
centerfield which each have fielding first. In fact, hitting ranks no lower
than the third most desired tool at any position. Also note that hitting
always precedes power.

注意到hitting在每個位置都是最被需要的tool，除了那些傳統上防守導向的位置如
捕手，游擊手與中外野手。在這些位置都是以fielding為優先。事實上，hitting在任何
位置的優先順序都不低於前三名。另外也需注意到hitting的優先順序總是比power高。

As stated previously, the positions that value power the most are the corner
positions. As the game continues to evolve, also observe how the expectations
of the second base position has become a much more offensively productive
position than traditionally perceived. Players like Jeff Kent, Ray Durham and
Bret Boone come to mind. Any power from the catcher, shortstop and
centerfield positions are bonus.

如同之前提到的，最重視power的是那些在角落的位置。當比賽持續地演進，也可以看出
跟傳統的認知相比，現在對二壘手的期待愈來愈重視攻擊上的高度產出。
如Jeff Kent, Ray Durham 與Bret Boone是其中幾個例子。任何來自於捕手，游擊手，
與中外野手的power都是額外的加分。

The three positions that place a greater value on arm strength are catcher,
shortstop and rightfield. And speed is more valued for centerfielders and the
middle infield, as expected, yet ranks no higher than third on any list.

三個比較重視臂力的位置是捕手，游擊手以及右外野手。
而速度一如預期，對中外野手和中間位置的內野手比較重要，但在每一個位置的重要性都
不會高於前三。

Based on a synthesis of these lists, I suppose we could rank the overall
value of tools in this order: hitting, fielding, power, arm, speed.

綜合以上的列表，我以為我們可以把這些tool的總體價值排序為:
hitting, fielding, power, 臂力，速度。

Okay. Let’s change gears for a moment. My team has an All-Star shortstop.
They also have a couple decent shortstop prospects in the minors. And then
they went out and drafted yet another shortstop in the first round of the
most recent draft! What are they thinking?!? Do they have a clue?

好。讓我們換檔一下。我的隊伍有一個全明星級的游擊手。他們在小聯盟也有幾個不
錯的游擊新秀。然後他們還在最近的選秀第一輪簽下另一個游擊手!
他們在想什麼? 這麼做有什麼依據嗎?


Dear Disgruntled in Draftville; Yes, they do have a clue and they are
thinking that they want to acquire the best collection of talent possible.

這位對選秀不滿意的先生；他們確實有所依據，儘可能的得到最佳的天分集合體是他們這
樣做的設想。

Then why so many shortstops?

為什麼有那麼多游擊手呢?

I just told you! They want to acquire the best collection of talent possible!
Just because a player is a shortstop in the minors does not mean he will play
there in the Majors. And just because a player is drafted as a shortstop does
not mean he will play there even in the minors, let alone if he ever makes it
to the big leagues. Many, many, many major league players that are not
shortstops were one day shortstops either in the minors, in college or in
high school.

就像我剛剛說的! 他們想要儘可能的得到最佳的天分集合體!
一位在小聯盟守游擊的選手不表示他在大聯盟也守游擊。甚至一位在選秀中以游擊手的
身份被選上的球員也不意味著他在小聯盟也守那個位置，更不用說他能否在大聯盟做到
這點。很多很多很多不是游擊手的大聯盟球員曾在小聯盟，大學，或高中擔任游擊手。


Think of it this way, when you have a high schooler with legitimate hopes of
entertaining a professional career, he’s going to be the best athlete on his
team. And where do the best athletes play? Shortstop. It does not mean he
will remain at shortstop at a more competitive level. For when he gets to the
next level (either the minors or college) he’ll be competing against several
other guys who were also high school shortstops. And they can’t all continue
to play shortstop. The ones who do remain at shortstop in the minors may not
even continue to stay there while they advance through the system.

這樣想吧，當你手邊有一個合理預期能進入職業生涯的高中選手，他一定是隊上的最佳
運動員。最佳運動員都在哪裡? 游擊區。這不表示他在更具競爭力的層級也會是游擊手。
因為當他進到下一個層級(不論是小聯盟或大學)他會與其他在高中也守游擊的傢伙競爭。
而他們不能全部繼續守游擊。甚至能在小聯盟擔任游擊手的人，當他們在小聯盟體系晉
升時也不一定能繼續留在那裡。

It’s possible for a team to draft 5 shortstops among their first 10
selections, only truly anticipating that perhaps 2 of them will continue to
play the position a couple seasons later. The others will move to other
positions.

一個隊伍有可能在他們的前10個選秀機會中簽下5名游擊手，事實上只期待或許有兩位
在幾個球季後還在這個位置上。其他人會移到別的守備位置。

Most major league second basemen were minor league shortstops. Shortstops can
grow out of their position and move to third base. A great majority of young
shortstops are weeded out and moved to the outfield where fielding and arm
strength are not as highly valued. Only the best remain.

大部分MLB的二壘手在小聯盟都是游擊手。游擊手可以從無到有地自他們的守位移到三壘
。很大一部分年輕的二壘手被淘汰而一到外野，那裡守備與臂力並沒有那麼被重視，只有
最好的人才會留在游擊。

Anyway, in general, shortstops are good athletes with quality tools. Why not
try to accumulate as many good athletes with quality tools at positions all
over the field?

無論如何，一般來說游擊手是有傑出特殊能力的好運動員。為什麼不儘量多累積有傑出
特殊能力，又能守大部分位置的好運動員呢?

We’ve only been talking about position players the whole time. What about
pitchers?

我們一直在談各守位的選手。那投手呢?

Pitchers are judged primarily on his pitches, command and composure (or
makeup). We’ll first discuss the pitches he throws. The fastball is not
always the best pitch but it’s usually the place to start.

投手主要依據他的球種，command與composure(或makeup)來評判。我們會先討論他丟的
球種。速球不一定總是最好的球種但通常是由速球開始看。




Why start with the fastball?

為什麼要先從速球開始看?

First of all, almost every pitcher has one. Secondly, the effectiveness of
his other pitches will draw off his fastball.  Thirdly, velocity is easy to
measure. Let’s examine a basic scouting scale to measure velocity.

首先，幾乎所有投手都有一顆速球。其次，他其他球種的有效性是由他的速球決定的。
最後，速度容易測量。讓我們檢視一下考慮速度的基本計分表。

MPH
 Grade

98+
 80

93-97
 70

90-92
 60

88-89
 50

85-87
 40

83-84
 30

82
 20




What velocity doesn’t tell us about the fastball is the movement. That’s
something a scout also considers in grading the pitch.

關於速球，速度沒有告訴我們的是它的尾勁。那是一個球探在為球種打分數時也要考慮的

Another reason to start with the fastball is because of all the pitches a
pitcher may throw, it’s more due to natural ability than learned skill.
Pitchers can learn to throw a curveball, slider or changeup. Velocity can not
be taught. There are ways to improve it, but only so slightly. Usually,
either a pitcher has a lightning bolt in his arm or he doesn’t.

另一個從速球開始的理由是，在一個投手所有可能投的球種中，速球的品質主要來自先天
的能力多於後天的學習。投手可以學習怎麼投曲球，滑球或變速球。速度是不能教的。
有方法去增加速度，但能進步的幅度有限。通常，一個投手的手臂要麼潛藏著釋放閃電
的能力，要麼就沒有。

Consider this: would you rather have a pitcher with one above-average pitch
or two above-average pitches?

考慮一下這點:你會比較想要一個有一顆高於平均球種的投手還是有兩顆高於平均球種
的投手?

I’d rather have a pitcher with two above-average pitches. Duh!

我當然想要有兩顆的投手。廢話!

Exactly. A pitcher with an above-average fastball can learn to improve his
average curveball. A pitcher with an above-average curveball is pretty much
stuck with God-given average velocity. It’s easier for a hard thrower to
develop better secondary pitches. A pitcher with an ordinary fastball has to
find more resourceful ways to be successful.

確實如此。有一個高於平均水準的速球可以學著改進他平均水準的曲球。有一顆高於平均
水準曲球的投手卻常無法擺脫上帝給的普通球速。球速快的人比較容易發展第二球種。
一個球速普通的投手必須找其他方法以求得成功。

What about a guy like Greg Maddux? He has an average fastball.

像Greg Maddux這樣的人呢? 他有一個平均水準的速球。

True. Greg Maddux’s fastball has always been ordinary. But Maddux had a plus
curveball and a plus-plus changeup with outstanding command and tremendous
makeup. He had to excel in several other ways to be as successful as he was
without an above-average fastball.

是的。Greg Maddux的速球總是平均水準。但他有一個"+"的曲球，一顆"++"的變速球，
傑出的控制力與極大的makeup。沒有一顆高於平均水準的速球，他必需在幾項其他方面表
現傑出才能如此成功。

What is this “plus” and “plus-plus” you’ve been speaking of?

你說的"+"和"++"是什麼意思?

It’s pretty much just scouting jargon. “Plus” is above-average (a 60 on
the scale) and “plus-plus” is well above-average (a 70 on the scouting
scale). An 80 pretty much speaks for itself.

這比較算是球探的行話。"+"就是高於平均(球探計分表上是60分)而"++"是高於平均很多
(球探計分表上是70分)。至於80分本身就可以說明有多極品了。

So what does it take for a scout to deem a pitcher as a potential major
league ace?

所以什麼讓球探判斷一個投手具有MLB王牌的潛力?

Before we get to that, we need to define a standard of what it takes to be an
ace. Does each team have an ace? Are there 30 different standards for being
an ace? Does being the ace of the Yankees or Cubs staff carry the same weight
as being the ace of the Tigers or Reds? Some teams’ third starter would be
the ace elsewhere. So we can’t use a team-by-team standard to define a
pitcher as being a #1, #2 or #3, etc. We have to develop a scale that puts
every pitcher from all 30 teams on the same level.

在我們進入問題核心之前，必須先定義成為王牌投手的標準。是不是每個隊伍都有一個
王牌呢? 身為在洋基或小熊隊上的王牌和身為老虎或紅人隊上的王牌有同樣份量嗎?
有些隊伍的第三號先發可能在別的隊伍是王牌。所以我們不能以各隊的標準來定義
一個投手是一號、二號、還是三號先發等等。我們必須發展出一種評判方式讓30支隊伍
的每一位投手都在相同的基準線上。

The scouting community has done that. It has formed a reasonable standard of
expectation for what it takes to compile a championship-caliber pitching
staff. The following chart is an example of what kind of expectations are
placed on a pitcher based on these attributes:

球探圈已經把這件事做好了。已有一個如何打造冠軍隊伍的投手團隊合理的預期標準。
下表是如何由這些特質來預期投手的位置:

#1 Starter:             Two plus pitches, average third pitch, plus-plus
                        command, plus makeup

#2 Starter:             Two plus pitches, average third pitch, average
                        command, average makeup

#3 Starter:             One plus pitch, two average pitches, average command,
                        average makeup

#4 & #5 starters:       Average velocity, consistent breaking ball, decent
                        changeup, command of two of the pitches

Closer:                 One dominant pitch, second plus pitch, plus
                        command, plus-plus makeup



Note that the 1st and 2nd starters can throw the same stuff. The difference
is found in the command and makeup. A pitcher’s makeup would include his
character, focus, intensity, etc. The 3rd starter is the same as the 2nd
starter except one of the plus pitches becomes average. Average would be the
best word to describe the overall skill of the typical 4th and 5th starters
on a major league staff.

注意一、二號先發可以有相同的stuff。不同處在於command與makeup。投手的所謂makeup
包含他的個性，專注度，積極程度(intensity)等等。第三號先發與第二號相同除了其中
一顆球種從高於平均變成平均水準。對第四和第五號先發而言，整體技能上的平均水準
是介紹他們的最好字眼。

關於command的意義:
MLB板   文章代碼(AID): #185X2pou
17400 m 3 4/29 leddy        □ [翻譯] Forgive & Forget: In command


intensity :似乎是投手面對打者時的積極程度
以80%的intensity投球和以100%的intensity投球是不同的，一位後援投手從救火隊轉入
先發時可能就必須調整他的intensity。Kevin Brown投球時的intensity被視為非常的高。



What about relief pitchers other than the closer role? Why are they not
mentioned?

那除了終結者之外的後援投手(RP)呢?為什麼沒提到他們?

Well, note that three average-or-better pitches are required for a starting
pitcher. A starting pitcher with only two average-or-better pitches is called
a relief pitcher. I would guess that about 90% of all major league relief
pitchers were minor league starters. Most pitchers who have good enough stuff
to be a true major league hopeful will be kept in the starting role for as
long as possible. If the pitcher fails to develop a decent third pitch by the
time he gets to the Bigs, that’s often when he gets bumped to the bullpen.

唔，注意到有三種高於或等於平均水準球路是先發投手的條件。只有兩顆高於或等於平均
水準球路的先發投手就叫RP。我猜大約90%大聯盟的RP在小聯盟都是先發投手。大部分
有足夠stuff在大聯盟先發的投手都會盡可能地在先發角色上待的久一點。如果投手無法
在登上MLB時發展出不錯的第三球路，他通常會被擠到牛棚。

A championship-caliber closer is a reliever with two above-average pitches.
If he had a third pitch that was at least average, he’d likely be a starter.
While other relievers may also have two quality pitches, the ones with the
plus-plus makeup are those who will better handle the pressures of the closer
role. Ordinary middle relievers should throw two pitches that are at least
average.

一個頂級的終結者是有兩顆高於平均水準球種的RP。如果他有第三顆至少是平均
水準的球種，他可能就是一位先發投手。同時其他的RP也可能有兩種高品質的球種，
一個有"++"級makeup的RP比較能處理擔任終結者角色所受的壓力。普通的中等RP應該要能
丟至少兩種平均水準的球路。


Great! Thanks for all the info! Now I’m going to go out and get myself a job
as a scout!

好極了! 謝謝你的知識! 現在我想出去為自己找個球探工作了!

Best wishes to you! You have plus ambition. But perhaps your technique is
still only a 30s.

祝你一路好走! 你的野心是"+"，但是你的技術大概只有30分 ^_<


--
怪不得你喜歡kururu~人就是這樣羨慕人家身上自己沒有的東西ㄆㄆ



--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.113.139.220

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.113.139.220
※ 編輯: eaquson         來自: 140.113.139.220      (05/10 14:35)
推 kkjjkkjj:推
推 edison321:有看有推
→ abc2090614:我還記得Ankiel以前有70分的曲球..現在大概是70分power
推 uranusjr:Power 和 hitting 那部份前後文矛盾了, 翻譯檢查一下吧
→ eaquson:額。你是說哪裡矛盾呢，其實我也看不太懂
推 Belladonaa:推
推 mjfang:推!!
推 max0427:推！
推 Ajax3:"power will feed off the hitting" 是 "power 會從 hitting
推 Sunrise2516:超棒的
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 111.243.226.67
推 atib:重看重推
推 nolander:值得一推
→ eaquson:小時不懂事亂翻一通 請鞭鞭
推 Toffy:推...長知識
→ OnlyTD:要再重翻一次嗎?XD"
推 alenn:推!!
推 headcase:推一個!
推 fetoyeh:好文值得一推
推 ga023630:好文值得推 謝謝翻譯
推 hh123yaya:推
推 bh962603:推推
推 srysry:推好文 釐清很多觀念
→ Sunrise2516:感謝3樓 這篇文章大大啟發我
→ Sunrise2516:以前棒球版好多這樣的翻譯文章，近年來越來越少了QQ
推 wade3flash:優文必推!!!!!!
推 rou2266:推  謝謝翻譯
推 LonelyLove:推!! 長知識了  感謝翻譯
推 LAAngels:好文快M
推 feather7589:重看重推！
推 eno03:好文 感謝翻譯 好長看好久@@
推 McRoberts:command的定義好像看不出來@@
推 McRoberts:是比control好球帶要求更高  進一步包含好球位置嗎
推 maxspeed150:control: 把球丟到好球帶 command: 把球控到好位置
推 royaljack:深度文   給推
→ away01231259:#189K8AIn (MLB) 原文還在
推 kinray:讚~吸收好知識
推 ss60115:push!!
推 whj0530:是否可以解釋某游擊控教練的行為XD
→ whalelover:看來游擊控有他的道理所在??XDDD
推 hornet01:好文!!!!!!!!
推 kenkenken31:不推不行阿!!!
→ borriss:收SS也要看是那個階段的
推 starcry:棒球真有趣~~
推 Fanicom:推推~
推 q224222:謝謝不吝提供好文THX~
推 Sparksfly:
推 jhunfong:可以理解為何洪中愛選一堆ss了........
推 dishomer:推
推 Kinra:power will feed off the hitting那邊意思翻相反了喔
→ Kinra:啊看完才發現轉之前的推文就有人講了XDrz
推 ccf0423:推,長知識^^
推 bravefan:好精采的一篇文!!
推 kerkerkerbe:GOOD